果汁饮料市场调查预测.ppt

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1、瓶装果汁市场调查与预测行业调查与预测分析软饮料市场产量分析软饮料产量预测我国GDP与软饮料产量回归分析果汁饮料产量分析果汁饮料产量季节指数分析1999-2007年我国软饮料总产量（单位：万吨）软饮料市场产量分析1999-2007年我国软饮料总产量（单位：万吨）年度产量一次移动K=3二次移动K=3a值b值预测值误差值1999118620001491200116801452.33200220251732.00200323742026.331736.892315.78289.44200429122437.002065.112808.

2、89371.892605.22306.78200530872791.002418.113163.89372.893180.78-93.78200639353311.332846.443776.22464.893536.78398.22200747083910.003337.444482.56572.564241.11466.8920085055.1120095627.67二次移动平均：软饮料市场产量分析1999-2007年我国软饮料总产量（单位：万吨）ɑ=0.4周期t年度YtSt[1]St[2]atbt预测值误差值01186.

3、001186.001199911861186.001186.002200014911308.001234.801381.2048.803200116801456.801323.601590.0088.801430.00250.004200220251684.081467.791900.37144.191678.80346.205200323741960.051664.692255.40196.902044.56329.446200429122340.831935.152746.51270.452452.30459.707200

4、530872639.302216.813061.79281.663016.9670.048200639353157.582593.123722.04376.313343.45591.559200747083777.753066.974488.53473.854098.35609.651020084962.3820095436.23二次指数平滑：软饮料市场产量分析1999-2007年我国软饮料总产量（单位：万吨）年度周期tYttYtt2预测值误差值19991118611861925-261200021491298241431-6

5、020013168050409193825820024202581001624444192003523741187025295057620046291217472363457545200573087216094939638762006839353148064447053520079470842372814976268合计452339814211128520081054822009115989趋势直线拟合：我国软饮料产量实际值、估计值对比（单位：万吨）我国GDP与软饮料产量回归分析年度产量（万吨）GDP(亿元)199911868

6、205420001491894042001168095933200220251023982003237411669420042912136515200530871823212006393520940720074708246619R=0.960386150627681P=3.65763979522323E-06F=169.705877134257回归方程：y=0.0195x-134.25可用国家的GDP预测值对未来的软饮料产量进行预测我国软饮料品种比重变化图（单位：万吨）1999-2008年我国果汁饮料总产量（单位：万吨）果

7、汁饮料产量季节指数分析时间序号年季度产量y=TSCI移动平均n=4中心移动平均数CMA季节指数SI(y/CMA)120051147237022187210716679983317942661728107.6831.03828341317882174415332511833207.8590.836375743187819952006119532461946787.8391.00331734220153776222320322083714.1981.071179532215205173234298021866421.0714968

8、4322212338420799472301804.6250.9036157882382377果汁饮料产量季节指数分析时间序号年季度产量y=TSCI移动平均n=4中心移动平均数CMA季节指数SI(y/CMA)92007122299722459479.6250.90668447