COMMENT ‘A “NEWS” VIEW OF JAPAN'S LOST DECADE’MONETARY POLICY DURING JAPAN'S LOST DECADE..pdf

《COMMENT ‘A “NEWS” VIEW OF JAPAN'S LOST DECADE’MONETARY POLICY DURING JAPAN'S LOST DECADE..pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在应用文档-天天文库。

1、TheJapaneseEconomicReviewVol.57,No.2,June2006COMMENT‘A“NEWS”VIEWOFJAPAN’SLOSTDECADE’:MONETARYPOLICYDURINGJAPAN’SLOSTDECADE*ByFRANCKPORTIERUniversitédesSciencesSocialesdeToulouseInthiscomment,IfirstproposeadiscussionofBraunandWaki’s“MonetaryPolicyduringJapan’sLostDecade”paper,byexaminingth

2、eirmodelpropertiesfollowingatechnologicalsurprise.IthenproposesomeempiricalevidencesuggestingthattheJapaneselostdecadecouldhavebeentriggeredbyadownwardrevisionoffutureTFPgrowthratherbyanunexpectedTFPslowdown.IshowthataplainRBCmodelisunabletoaccountfortheeffectofsucharevisioninexpectation

3、,whileastickypricemodelalongthelinesofBraunandWaki,oraflex-pricemodelwitharichsectorialstructure,givemorerealisticpredictions.Theseresultsfavoura“News”viewofthe1990sinJapan.Indeed,adownwardsrevisionoffutureTFPgrowthexpectationsactasademandshockintheshortterm,whiletheactualslowdownactsasas

4、upplyshockinthemediumandlongterm.JELClassification:E31.IntroductionIntheirwork“MonetaryPolicyduringJapan’sLostDecade”,ToniBraunandYuichiroWaki(2006)proposeaquantitativeexplorationofthatperiod.TheyfirstpresentamodelàlaRotemberg(1996),withmonopolisticcompetition,quadraticpriceadjustmentcosts

5、andaTaylorrule.Theyexplicitlymodelthezeroboundonnominalinterestrate.Themodelisfedwiththeactualtotalfactorproductivity(TFP)seriesandanincreaseingov-ernmentexpenditures.ItcanreasonablyaccountfortherealandnominalfeaturesoftheJapaneseeconomyinthe1990s.Thisworkisanimportantstepinthemodelingof

6、theJapanesedepressionfromtheviewpointofquantitativemodernmacroeconomics,extend-ingtheworkofHayashiandPrescott(2002).Inthisnote,IfirstexamineBraunandWaki’smodelpropertiesfollowingatechnologicalsurprise.Ithenproposesomeempiri-calevidencesuggestingthattheJapaneselostdecadecouldhavebeentrigge

7、redbyadownwardsrevisionoffutureTFPgrowthratherthanbyanunexpectedTFPslowdown.IshowthataplainRBCmodelisunabletoaccountfortheeffectofsucharevisioninexpectation,whileastickypricemodelalongthelinesofBraunandWakioraflex-pricemodelwitharichsectorialstructuregivemorerealisticpredi