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1、外文翻译原文Materialsource：《AnalysisForFinancialManagement》Author：RobertC.HigginsMostthoughtfulindividualsandsomeinvestmentbankersknowthatallinterestingfinancialdecisionsinvolveriskaswellasreturn.Bytheirnature,businessinvestmentsrequiretheexpenditureofaknownsumofmoneytodayinanticipationofunce
2、rtainfuturebenefits.Consequently,ifthediscountedcashflowtechniquesdiscussedinthelastchapteraretobeusefulinevaluatingrealisticinvestments,theymustincorporateconsiderationsofriskaswellasreturn.Towsuchconsiderationsarerelevant.Atanappliedlevel,riskincreasesthedifficultyofestimatingrelevant
3、cashflows.Moreimportantlyataconceptuallevel,riskitselfentersasafundamentaldeterminantofinvestmentvalue.Thus,iftwoinvestmentspromisethesameexpectedreturnbuthavedifferingrisk,mostofuswillpreferthelow-riskalternative.Inthejargonofeconomics,weareriskaverse,andasaresult,riskreducesinvestment
4、value.Thedetailsofthemarketlineneednotdetainushere.Whatisimportantisrealizationthatknowledgeofaninvestment'sexpectedreturnisnotenoughtodetermineitsworth.Instead,investmentevaluationisatwodimensionaltaskinvolvingabalancingofriskagainstreturn.l.RiskDefinedSpeakingbroadly,therearetwoaspect
5、stoinvestmentrisk:Thedispersionofaninvestment^possiblereturns,andthecorrelationofthesereturnswiththoseavailableonotherassets.Aninvestment'sexpectedreturnistheprobability-weightedaverageofthedeviationsofthreereturnsarepossible—8、12and18percent一andifthechanceofeachoccurringis4030and30perc
6、ent,respectively,theinvestmentsexpectedreturnis:Expectedreturn=0.40*8%+0.30*12%+0.30*18%=12.2%Dispersionriskcapturestheintuitivelyappealingnotionthatriskistiedtotherangofpossibleoutcomes,oralternativelytotheuncertaintysurroundingtheoutcome.ThusbecauseinvestmentAshowsconsiderablebunching
7、ofpossiblereturnsabouttheexpectedreturn,itsriskislow.InvestmentB,ontheotherhand,evidencesconsiderablylessclustering,andisthushigherrisk.Borrowingfromstatistics,onewaytomeasurethisclusteringtendencyistocalculatethestandarddeviationofreturn.Thedetailsofcalculatinganinvestment'sex
