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1、外文翻译原文Materialsource：《AnalysisForFinancialManagement》Author：RobertC.HigginsMostthoughtfulindividualsandsomeinvestmentbankersknowthatallinterestingfinancialdecisionsinvolveriskaswellasreturn.Bytheirnature,businessinvestmentsrequiretheexpenditureofaknownsumofmoneytodayinanticipat
2、ionofuncertainfuturebenefits.Consequently,ifthediscountedcashflowtechniquesdiscussedinthelastchapteraretobeusefulinevaluatingrealisticinvestments,theymustincorporateconsiderationsofriskaswellasreturn.Towsuchconsiderationsarerelevant.Atanappliedlevel,riskincreasesthedifficultyof
3、estimatingrelevantcashflows.Moreimportantlyataconceptuallevel,riskitselfentersasafundamentaldeterminantofinvestmentvalue.Thus,iftwoinvestmentspromisethesameexpectedreturnbuthavedifferingrisk,mostofuswillpreferthelow-riskalternative.Inthejargonofeconomics,weareriskaverse,andasar
4、esult,riskreducesinvestmentvalue.Thedetailsofthemarketlineneednotdetainushere.Whatisimportantisrealizationthatknowledgeofaninvestment’sexpectedreturnisnotenoughtodetermineitsworth.Instead,investmentevaluationisatwo-dimensionaltaskinvolvingabalancingofriskagainstreturn.1.RiskDef
5、inedSpeakingbroadly,therearetwoaspectstoinvestmentrisk:Thedispersionofaninvestment’spossiblereturns,andthecorrelationofthesereturnswiththoseavailableonotherassets.Aninvestment’sexpectedreturnistheprobability-weightedaverageofthedeviationsofthreereturnsarepossible—8、12and18perce
6、nt—andifthechanceofeachoccurringis40、30and30percent,respectively,theinvestment’sexpectedreturnis:Expectedreturn=0.40*8%+0.30*12%+0.30*18%=12.2%Dispersionriskcapturestheintuitivelyappealingnotionthatriskistiedtotherangofpossibleoutcomes,oralternativelytotheuncertaintysurrounding
7、theoutcome.6ThusbecauseinvestmentAshowsconsiderablebunchingofpossiblereturnsabouttheexpectedreturn,itsriskislow.InvestmentB,ontheotherhand,evidencesconsiderablylessclustering,andisthushigherrisk.Borrowingfromstatistics,onewaytomeasurethisclusteringtendencyistocalculatethestanda
8、rddeviationofreturn.Thedetailsofcalculatinganinvestmen
