资源描述：
《2015年中国医疗行业研究报告-花旗投行.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、CitiResearchEquities12January2015│34pagesHealthcareAsia
2、China2015ChineseHealthcareOutlookGrowthResilient;ChangingPoliciesPoisedforSectorGrowthConclusion(s)—Weexpectdemandtoremainresilientandsectorgrowthtobe~11%-12%in’15(slightlybelow~13%in’14),duetothepotentialpriceerosioninRichardYehthe‘15tend
3、ercycle.WeseemoreM&Asin’15andbeyondtosupplementthe+852-2501-2789organicgrowthofhealthcarecompanies(Citiestimatescoveragecompanies’richard.l.yeh@citi.comaverageEPSgrowthof19.8%vs.consensus21.3%in’15,vs.sectorvaluationatZiyiChen19xFY15PE.Onpolicytrend,weseethepotentialreimbursementreformmayziyi.c
4、hen@citi.combenefitdomesticgenericsvs.MNCs’off-patientdrugs.WeexpectafurtheropeningSeanLoofthehospitalmarketandfreeingupofphysicians’practicesin‘15.Theemergencesean.lo@citi.comofmHealth/eHealth,despitetheearlybusinessmodels,maypotentiallyalterthesectorlandscapeinthecomingyears.Colorfrommanagem
5、entinterviews—Weinterviewedmanagementfrom11coveragecompanieson’15growthoutlook:1)salesgrowthin’15remainssolid;2)managementexpectsingeneralstablemargin,whileASPmaydeclineintenders,pricingpressuremaybeoffsetbyproductmixchangefordistributorsandcostsavingswithhighervolumeforpharmacompanies;3)manage
6、mentexpectsM&Aasthekeygrowthdriver,targetingdifferentiatedproductsordrugsthatcouldcreatesynergy,andhospitalsareconsideredaslonger-terminvestments;4)capexmaydeclinein’15,astheupgradecyclefornewGMPisnearlycomplete.Preferredstocksin‘15—WepreferpharmanameswithearningssustainabilityandstrongM&Acapa
7、bility:Luye(consolidationofJialin,maybemoreM&As)andCSPC(solidkeydruggrowth,tenderstodriveoncologydrugsvolume);WealsopreferpotentialSOEreformbeneficiaries,GZBYSPharmaandSinopharm,whichmayalsobenefitfromtheemergingtrendofmHealth/eHealth.Onthehospitalthemewiththeopeningofthehospitalmarket,weprefer
8、AierandFosunPharma.EmergingmHealth/eHealth—WithleadingInternetplayersenteringthehealthcaresectorandtherampingupofmHealth/eHealthstart-upsin‘13/’14,weseetheinterfaceofInternet/mobiletechnologiesmaychangethelandscapeofthehealthcare
