经济预测及决策实验

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1、重庆交通大学学生实验报告实验课程名称《经济预测与决策》开课实验室B01机房2014级物流管理专业学生姓名陈立新学号开课时间2015至2016学年第二学期总成绩教师签名实验元线性回归预测一、实验目的通过实验掌握一元线性回归预测的数学模型、参数估计方法、误差分析和检验，掌握一元线性回归的点预测和区间预测。二、实验内容已知某市货物运输量Y（万吨），GDP（亿元，1980年不变价）1985年-1998年的样本观测值见下表：年份YGDP198518249161.69198618525171.07198718400184.07198816693194.75198915543197.8

2、6199015929208.55199118308221.06199217522246.92199321640276.8199423783316.38199524040363.52199624133415.51199725090465.78199824505509.101.用Excel直接计算一元线性回归模型的参数，要求写出计算过程。2.计算可决系数，并根据可决系数分析模型的优劣。3.计算F统计量，根据显著性水平a=0.05作F检验。4•假如2000年某市以1980为不变价国内生产总值为620亿元，求2000年货物运输量预测值及预测区间。三、实验步骤Yx(GDP)1824

3、9161.6918525171.0718400184.0716693194.7515543197.8615929208.5518308221.0617522246.9221640276.823783316.3824040363.5224133415.5125090465.7824505509.13E+053933.0620169280.933xi"2

4、yiJ

5、xi*yi

6、1肝1a"26143.66333026001295068126.9541512596.2729264.94343175625316907226.9541512596.2733881.76338560000

7、338688826.9541512596.2737927.56278656249325096226.9541512596.2739148.58241584849307533826.9541512596.2743493.1253733041332199326.9541512596.2748867.52335182864404716626.9541512596.2760969.49307020484432653226.9541512596.2776618.24468289600598995226.9541512596.27100096.3565631089752446626.

8、9541512596.27132146.8577921600873902126.9541512596.27172648.65824016891002750326.9541512596.272169516295081001168642026.9541512596.27259182.86004950251247549626.9541512596.2712773405.855E+0983971489377.3581176347.79123&64182275875997963•ayi(yi-yij“2(yf厂2r"2(yi-y')16954.481675777103303720.

9、7810023684754.517207.3117363028769059o"2270132717557.727094436816567.929270603127844.917845.5913284545396261.501207959717929.4156949695013828.91710.8652139591118217.5552374763806472.1F1797396618554.7560885.42604420.942.79505346172619251.782992152840499.477004340.320057.17250533912409.4352

10、16510221124.027070180912879.981306409422394.6427072184955370.11498795923795.98113580131581191571669425150.973717.18248242822422045926318.62328922637823126188046132823603.5E+07125263669160388387四.实验结果可决系数=0.781002yi二12596.27+26.95415xi/二12596.27b》26・95F二42.79505F(0.0