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1、cGlobalResearch14June2019ChinaSolarSectorUBSSolarCorporateDay2019takeaways:improvingsupply/demandandinnovationTwelvecorporatesand34institutionalinvestorsattendedoureventWeheldtheUBSSolarCorporateDay2019on4/5JuneinShanghaitocoincidewithSNEC,theworld'slarge
2、stsolarexpo.Weinvitedmanagementof12firmscoveringmajorsegmentsofthesolarvaluechain.GuestsincludedtwoCEOs,fiveCFOsandsevenboardsecretariesandVPsfromfirmsinvolvedinpolysilicon(Tongwei,GCL-Poly,WackerChemie,Daqo),wafers(Longi),cells/modules(Jinko,CanadianSolar
3、,GCLSystemIntegration),solarglass(Xinyi,FlatGlass),inverters(Sungrow)andsolarmanufacturingequipment(MeyerBurger).About34institutionalinvestorsfromaroundtheworldattended.Takeaway1:supply/demandimproving;H2segmentpricehikepotential1)Corporateshadfairlyunifor
4、mforecastsof2019globalsolardemandat120-130GW(c40GWcontributionfromChina)incontrasttothedividedviewspreviously.2)Mostexpectmorebalancedsupply/demandinH2asdomesticdemandkicksin(mostlyinAug-Dec)withsomesegmentssuchassolarglass,polysiliconandmono-waferspossibl
5、yhikingpricesamidtightsupply.3)ThemajoritythinkminorproductASPhikeswillnotdelaygridparityas:a)gridparityisarealityinmostcountrieswithsolargenerationsometimesmuchcheaperthanothergenerationsources;b)higherconversionefficiency,drivenbytechnologicaladvances,co
6、uldsignificantlydiluteex-moduleBalanceofSystemcosts.4)Tier-1modulemakershavelockedinpricingandvolumeonc80%ofordersthisyearandonlysomeoutputremainsfordomesticbuyers.Takeaway2:innovationongoing,butS-Tvaluechaindisruptionunlikely1)R&Dcontinuestoriseinthesolar
7、valuechain.BesidestechnologiesinwidespreaduselikePERC,double-sided/double-glazingandshingleddesign,othernext-gentechnologiessuchasHeterojunctioncells(HJT),TOPConandperovskitescouldintheviewofmostcorporatesraisetheupperlimitsofconversionefficiencyandthustri
8、mcostperkWh.2)However,mostcorporatesdonotexpectnewtechtodisruptthevaluechainsoon:a)next-gentechnologyismostlystillinR&Dandatleastthreeyearsawayfrommassproduction;b)newtechnologiesaremostlystillsiliconbased;c)
