中国电子商务报告（阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、唯品会）

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1、TableOfContentsIndustryoverview5FocusonNewRetailforgrowth5Geographicexpansion8Focalpointsforkeye-commercestocksin201914Profitmargintrendtostabilizein2019E;signsofarisingmarg14Driverofprofitmargin#1:Useracquisitioncost16Driverofprofitmargin#2:Compareuniteconomicsamongmerc

2、hant16Valuations18Valuationframework18Valuationdetails18Valuationcomparisons19Alibaba23JD.com25Outlookandfinancialforecasts27Valuationandkeyrisks33Valuation33Keyrisks33Companyprofile34Shareholdingstructure34Managementprofile35Pinduoduo36Outlookandfinancialforecast38Marke

3、tingcostisthekeyvariableinturningprofitable39Financialforecasts40Valuationandkeyrisks45Valuationframework45Keyrisks45Companyprofile46Shareholdingstructure46Managementprofile47Vipshop48Outlookandfinancialforecasts50TableOfContentsValuationandkeyrisks55Valuationframework55

4、Earningssensitivity55Keydownsiderisks56Companyprofile57Shareholdingstructure57Managementprofile58IndustryoverviewWeseetwomainindustrytrendsdrivingthecorporatestrategyofmajore-com-merceplayersinChina:1)acategoryshifttowardsFMCGandarepositioningofcoreexpertise,and2)diverse

5、demographicandgeographicsegmentation,whichencouragescompaniestoseekalargeruserbase.FocusonNewRetailforgrowthKeygrowthfocusinunderpenetratedFMCGsegmentOneofthekeyunderlyingthemesine-commercecontinuestobethepushtowardsFMCG(fast-movingconsumergoods)segmentpenetration,ase-co

6、mmerceevolvesfromstandardizedproductswithalongershelflife(e.g.3C-computer,communication,consumerelectronics)towardsnon-standardproductswithashortershelflife(e.g.groceries).WebelieveChinaisstillatanearlystageofitsinvestmentcycle,whichmaycontinueforseveralmoreyearsbeforewe

7、enterameaningfulharvestingcycle.Toputthefiguresintoperspective,EuromonitordataindicatesthatChina'se-com-mercepenetrationis23%in2018,oneofthehighestamongotherdevelopede-commercemarkets.However,intheFMCGcategory,andinparticular,thefoodandbeveragesegment,Chinastillhasroomto

8、scaleup,withapenetrationrateof9%.Incomparison,SouthKoreahashighpenetrationinbothtotale-commerceandFMCG,