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1、IndustrialcompanyRatingMethodologyOverviewDeterminingthepredictabilityoffuturecashgenerationistheprimaryfocusofMoody'sindustrialcompanyanalysis.Onthemacrolevel,welookatindustrytrends,suchascostandpricing,domesticandinternationalcompetition,andthepaceofandsusceptibilitytotechnologicalcha
2、nge,whichprovideimportantindicationsoffutureprofitability,assetvalues,upcomingfinancingneeds,andpotentialliabilities.Wealsolookatthepoliticalandregulatoryenviron-metofthecountryorcountriesinwhichthecompanyoperatestodeterminetheeffectofpotentialgovernmentsupport,ofthecurrentstateofregula
3、tionorderegulation,andofmonetarypolicyandexchangeratesonthecompany'sabilitytomeetitsdebtserviceobligations.Atthecompanylevel,managementquality,althoughdifficulttoquantifyisoneofthemostimportantfactorssupportinganissuer'screditstrength.ManagementStrategycanprovideimportantinsightIntoacom
4、pany'sabilitytocompete,howlikelyitistousedebtcapacity,itstreatmentofitssubsidiaries,itsrelationshipwithregulators,anditspositionvis-a-visallfundamentalsaffectingthecompany'slong-termcreditstrength.Moody'salsolookscloselyatmanagement'spastperformanceversusplan.Onceestablished,arecordofco
5、nsistencycanprovideanaddedlevelofcomfortthatmanagementwillperformwellin_thefuture,evenunderadverseconditions.OuranalysisalsofocusesonI)anassessmentofacompany'spositioninrelationtoitsindustrypeers,particularlyinabilitytogeneraterevenueswhilecontrollingcosts;2)onthecompany'sfinancialposit
6、ionandsourcesofliquidity;3)oncompanystructure,withanemphasisonunderstandingthelegalclaimsonthecashHowoftheindividualunitswithinacorporatefamily;4)onparentcompanyguaranteesandmaintenanceagreement;and5)onspecialeventrisk,orthepossibilitythatanissuer'sfundamentalcreditworthinessmaydeclines
7、harplyandsuddenlybecauseofamerger,acquisition,orleveragedbuy-out;orbecauseofanadversejudicial,legislative,orregulatoryruling;oranindustrialaccident.Thereisconsiderablevariationastowhichcreditfactoraremostrelevanttoagivenindustryatagiventime.Thereareveryimportantdifferencesincre
