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1、THEANALYSISOFMACROECONOMICFACTORSAFFECTINGSTOCKPRICESANDSTOCKPRICESFORECASTINGABSTRACTThestockmarkethasalwaysbeenregardedasacountry'smacroeconomicnmicrocosmisnotonlytheobjectofnationalpublicconcern,butanimportantcontentofothercountriestoevaluateacountry'seconomic
2、strength,itsimportanceisself-evident.Withthemarketexpanding,defectsinChinesestockmarketarealsoemerging,suchasmarketstandardizationdegreeisnothigh,malignanteventshaveoftenoccurred;therelatedsystemisnotperfect,theHinconstantinpolicy11phenomenonisserious,leadingtosi
3、gnificantchangesinstockpricesandinvestorshadbeendelisting,seriouslyaffectthehealthyandstabledevelopmentofthestockmarket.Therefore,itisnecessarytostudythefactorsaffectingstockprices,andonthisbasis,seekappropriatewaystopredictfuturestockpricesasaccuratelyaspossible
4、・Firstofall,onthebasisofthetheoreticalanalysisofthemacroeconomicfactorsaffectingstockprices,usingthemonthlydataofrelatedindicatorsfromJanuary2004toDecember2013,greycorrelationanalysis,cointegrationanalysisandgrangercausalitytestareusedintheempiricalresearchonther
5、elationshipbetweenthemacroeconomyandstockmarket.Theresultsshowthatthereisalong・termequilibriumrelationshipbetweenmacroeconomyandstockmarket,althoughthereisacertaindegreeofdiviationbetweenthem,thestockmarketisstillanbarometer'1ofmacro-economy.Secondly,selecttheBPn
6、euralnetworkmodelandGM(1,1)modeltoforecasttheShanghaicompositeindexmonthlydatafromOctober2013toDecember2013,andfoundthatneuralnetworkmodel,includingthechangesofmacroeconomicinformation,haspredictedresultsthataremoreinlinewithreality.Thus,thisarticlebelievesthatth
7、emacroeconomicisstillanimportantfactoraffectingstockpricesalthoughtheyarephaseddivergence.Whenforecastthefuturestockprices,weshouldconsidertheinfluenceofmacroeconomicfactorsonstockprices・Finally,onthebasisofsummarizingthefulltext,putforwardthefeasiblepolicysugges
8、tions,fromtheaspectsofexpandingthemarketscale,acceleratingreformoftheinterestrate,transforminggovernmentfunctions,etc.,toimprovethestateofChinesestockmarket,an
