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1、TorunasimulationusingCrystaiBall®:1.SetupSpreadsheetBuildaspreadsheetthatwillcalculatetheperformancemeasure(e.g.,profit)intermsoftheinputs(randomornot).Forrandominputs,justenteranynumber.2.DefineAssumptions—i.e.,randomvariablesDefinewhichcellsarerandom,andwhatd
2、istributiontheyshouldfollow.3.DefineForecast—i・e.,outputorperformancemeasureDefinewhichcell(s)youareinterestedinforecasting(typicallytheperformancemeasure,e.g.,profit).4.ChooseNumberofTrialsSelectthenumberoftrials.IfyouwouldlaterliketogeneratetheSensitivityAnal
3、ysischart,choose"SensitivityAnalysis"underOptionsinRunPreferences.5.RunSimulationRunthesimulation.Ifyouwou1dliketochangeparametersandre-runthesimulation,youshould"reset"thesimulation(clickonthe"ResetSimulation"buttononthetoolbarorintheRunmenu)first・6.ViewResult
4、sTheforecastwindowshowingtheresultsofthesimulationappearsautomaticallyafter(orduring)theSimulation.ManydifferentresuItsareavailable(frequencychart,cumulativechart,statistics,percentiles,sensitivityanalysis,andtrondchart).Theresultscanbecopiedintotheworksheet.Cr
5、ystalBallToolbar:AssumptionsForecastPreferencesSimulationSimulationWindowChartRecalltheWaltonBookstoreexample:ItisAugust,andtheymustdecidehowmanyofnextyear'snaturecalendarstoorder.EachcalendarcoststhelA)bkstorcB$7.50lindisjQ)ldforI$10.DAfte:•FcbrEary,(illunBold
6、)cdl(⑥如塩isheiforarefundof$：L50per潯1('nr!tnnnr'pdietq((wi112semewhes、hpturppn104丿U丄UUJ-v-zLUJ1UnitCost=$7.50$10.00$2.505UnitPrice=61emajy^itRefund=100,300]7()rderQuantitv=Q(decisionvariable)8DemandDistribution(Uniform)9]—‘Minimum=100300小101XyVL/11Llkx.Maximum=
7、11IL—屮1T0121rnVari^hlp—SU*MdX(y-d,o)13IrOifcfetQuantity=200st+Refund14)#(tfiPO]obaa十j-WrDemandCHevenu?DJostFHetunaHrotitF询Sinulation20($2,000.00$1,£00.00$0.00$500.0016DemandRevenueCostRefundProfit17200=C5*MIN(C13,B17)
8、=C4*C13=C6*MAX(C13-B17,0)=C17-D17+E17Step#2
9、(DefineAssumptions—i.e.,randomvariables)Select(blue).thocollBhalcoitainsthe：16DemandCellB17:DistributionGalleryrandomvariable(B17)—colorcodeElHofmalpiangulafEoissonIBinomial
