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1、Iso19011@126.comPage18CrystalBallMonte-CarloSimulationwithCrystalBall®TorunasimulationusingCrystalBall®:1.SetupSpreadsheetBuildaspreadsheetthatwillcalculatetheperformancemeasure(e.g.,profit)intermsoftheinputs(randomornot).Forrandominputs,justenteranynumber.2.DefineAssumptions—i.e.,randomvariable
2、sDefinewhichcellsarerandom,andwhatdistributiontheyshouldfollow.3.DefineForecast—i.e.,outputorperformancemeasureDefinewhichcell(s)youareinterestedinforecasting(typicallytheperformancemeasure,e.g.,profit).4.ChooseNumberofTrialsSelectthenumberoftrials.IfyouwouldlaterliketogeneratetheSensitivityAnal
3、ysischart,choose“SensitivityAnalysis”underOptionsinRunPreferences.5.RunSimulationRunthesimulation.Ifyouwouldliketochangeparametersandre-runthesimulation,youshould“reset”thesimulation(clickonthe“ResetSimulation”buttononthetoolbarorintheRunmenu)first.6.ViewResultsTheforecastwindowshowingtheresults
4、ofthesimulationappearsautomaticallyafter(orduring)thesimulation.Manydifferentresultsareavailable(frequencychart,cumulativechart,statistics,percentiles,sensitivityanalysis,andtrendchart).Theresultscanbecopiedintotheworksheet.CrystalBallToolbar:Iso19011@126.comPage18CrystalBallDefineDefineRunStart
5、ResetForecastTrendAssumptionsForecastPreferencesSimulationSimulationWindowChartIso19011@126.comPage18CrystalBallWaltonBookstoreSimulationwithCrystalBall®RecalltheWaltonBookstoreexample:ItisAugust,andtheymustdecidehowmanyofnextyear’snaturecalendarstoorder.Eachcalendarcoststhebookstore$7.50andisso
6、ldfor$10.AfterFebruary,allunsoldcalendarsarereturnedtothepublisherforarefundof$2.50percalendar.SupposeWaltonpredictsdemandwillbesomewherebetween100and300(discreteuniform).Demand=d~Uniform[100,300]OrderQuantity=Q(decisionvariable)Revenue=$10*Min(Q,d)Cost=$7.50*QRefund=$2.50*Max(Q–d,0)Profit=Reven
7、ue–Cost+RefundStep#1(SetupSpreadsheet)Iso19011@126.comPage18CrystalBallWaltonBookstoreSimulationwithCrystalBall®Step#2(DefineAssumptions—i.e.,randomvariables)Selectthecellthatcontainstherandomvariable(B17)—colorcode(blue):an
