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1、GeorgeKennan Moscow22February1946AnswertoDept’s284,Feb.3,11involvesquestionssointricate,sodelicate,sostrangetoourformofthought,andsoimportanttoanalysisofourinternationalenvironmentthatIcannotcompressanswersintosinglebriefmessagewithoutyieldingtowhatIfeelwouldbedangerousd
2、egreeofoversimplification.Ihope,therefore,DeptwillbearwithmeifIsubmitinanswertothisquestionfiveparts,subjectsofwhichwillberoughlyasfollows:(1)BasicfeaturesofpostwarSovietoutlook.(2)Backgroundofthisoutlook.(3)Itsprojectioninpracticalpolicyonofficiallevel.(4)Itsprojectiono
3、nunofficiallevel.(5)PracticaldeductionsfromstandpointofUSpolicy.Iapologizeinadvanceforthisburdeningoftelegraphicchannel;butquestionsinvolvedareofsuchurgentimportance,particularlyinviewofrecentevents,thatouranswerstothem,iftheydeserveattentionatall,seemtometodeserveitaton
4、ce.Therefollows: Part1:BasicFeaturesofPostwarSovietOutlookasPutForwardbyOfficialPropagandaMachine,AreasFollows(a)USSRstilllivesinantagonistic"capitalistencirclement"withwhichinthelongruntherecanbenopermanentpeacefulcoexistence.AsstatedbyStalinin1927toadelegationofAmerica
5、nworkers:"Incourseoffurtherdevelopmentofinternationalrevolutiontherewillemergetwocentersofworldsignificance:asocialistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountrieswhichtendtowardsocialism,andacapitalistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountriesthatinclinetowardcapitalism.Battlebetweenthese
6、twocentersforcommandofworldeconomywilldecidefateofcapitalismandofcommunisminentireworld. (b)Capitalistworldisbesetwithinternalconflicts,inherentinnatureofcapitalistsociety.Theseconflictsareinsolublebymeansofpeacefulcompromise.GreatestofthemisthatbetweenEnglandandUS.(c)In
7、ternalconflictsofcapitalisminevitablygeneratewars.Warsthusgeneratedmaybeoftwokinds:intra-capitalistwarsbetweentwocapitaliststatesandwarsofinterventionagainstsocialistworld.Smartcapitalists,vainlyseekingescapefrominnerconflictsofcapitalism,inclinetowardlatter.(d)Intervent
8、ionagainstUSSR,whileitwouldbedisastroustothosewhoundertookit,wouldcausereneweddelayinprogressofSovietso
