应用回归分析-实用回归分析

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1、《应用回归分析》课程设计报告班级100802班姓名学号201028102012年12月下表为1997年一2006年国内生产总值与能源生产总量、农林牧渔业总产值、原煤产量、国内旅游人数、货物进岀口总额的数据。〈数据来自CNKI数字搜索〉表一年份国内生产能源生产农林牧渔业原煤国内旅游货物进岀口总值总量总产值产量人数总额yxlx2x3x4x5199778060.83499613241023788.413.7364426967.2199883024.27976912425024541.8612.569526849.

2、7199988479.154125934.724519.0612.871929896.2751898000.454128977.82000308824915.812.9974439273.22001108068.22137445.426179.613.8178442183.605642002119095.68143809.827390.7535887851378.29273914.552003135173.97163841.517.2287070483.5615329691.82004159586.7418

3、7341.136238.9897619.92110295539.1792522005184739.0720587639450.8873422.051212116921.827212006211808.0422105642424.3810523.731394140971.44687158首先写岀数据做多元冋归模型的一般形式，程序如下datatotal;inputyxlx2x3x4x5@@;cards;78060.83499613241023788.413.7364426967.283024.279769124

4、25024541.8612.569526849.788479.154751125934.7824519.0612.871929896.298000.454308128977.8824915.812.9974439273.2108068.22056137445.4426179.613.8178442183.6119095.68927143809.8327390.75358914.5587851378.2135173.97615163841.5329691.817.2287070483.5159586.7479

5、2187341.1536238.98976219.92110295539.1184739.0727220587639450.88734122.051212116921.8211808.048722105642424.38105123.731394140971.44658run;procprint;run;procregall;modely=xlx2x3x4x5;run;运行结果可得相关系数矩阵如下图：图一x4x5yCorrelationx2x3Variablexl1nV7—ofunuA7L<4—J4nunV

6、AuAbAvVOuOu■11■awQucuooov「115ouOu4Aun7—ooQuA▼n▼4A—'VQuQuC.V>Tlrcft/7fQuQuOuOuQunVnVJ41—nunoAunVJnH.7—AHUnuQuAUJAMUoo1—ft/*OurDXXXXXy可大致看出，变量之间存在相关性。图二ParameterEstimatesVariableInterceptxlx2x3x4x5DFI1111IParameterEstimate4596.525483」9057-1.39694•250942.0517

7、81.10090433440.111.223092.611.85323-0.759258.93035-2.7146.5321?0.040.341373.22StandardErrortValue7—rhvQurnvAMU-1—nuOuO-JcoAD9LrDQuRuAKUAdOunu4nVQunVnuAunuAuAunVH->TypeISS1.602848E1118188550510946936123142952943217090570965844sT1I6ypOuAhv9Urhv7—4.oocvRuA/-A

8、D47—AuDoA/-OuAboo7(otOuRv7—Ou7—A7U1—fi,4.oo1—AMUStandardizedEstincite02.49401-0.21125-2.288260.011230.98273SquaredSemi-partialCorrTypeI0.971200.005060.016780.001720.00379SquaredPartialCorrTypeI0.971200.175550