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ID:41934112
大小:72.70 KB
页数:13页
时间:2019-09-05
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1、STOCKVALUATION"…changesinsecuritypricesarefundamentallyunpredictableandthisresultisanaturalconsequenceofwell-functioningcapitalmarkets......whenweusetheconceptofpresentvaluetopricecommonstocks,wearenotpromisingyouakeytoinvestmentsuccess;wesimplybelie
2、vethattheideacanhelpyouunderstandwhysomeinvestmentsarepricedhigherthanothers•”Brealey&MyersCOMMONSTOCKVALUATION■Cashpaybacktostockscomesintwoforms:1)Cashdividends2)Capitalgainsorlosses■Terms:Po•CurrentpricepersharePl-Pricepersharein1year'stimeDi・Expe
3、cteddividendpersharein1years,stimer-Expectedreturnonsimilarsecurities■Basicequationforaninvestor,recognizingthatpaybackcomesfrombothdividendsandcapitalgains:Po=Po=Po=D丄+Pi1+rtDt/(l+r亍+Pn/(l+r)n1XDt/d+r)1■THEPRICEOFASHAREISEQUALTOTHEPVOFALLFUTUREDIVID
4、ENDSTwoNormalReactions>Thatthedividendpricingmodelforacommonstockignorescapitalgain,whichiswhypeoplebuystockssuchasMicrosoft•Theformulawasderivedfromtheassumptionthatpriceinanyperiodisdeterminedbyexpecteddividendsandcapitalgainsoverthenextperiod.2叫>B
5、utthemodelrequiresthattheanalystknowallfuturedividendsandthatisn,tpossible.Thisisarealproblem.Thedividend-pricingmodelisdifficulttousebutthatdoesiftunderminetheconceptualimportanceofthebasisframework.Wesimplyhavetousethemodelwiththeavailableinformati
6、ontoassistusinestimatingthevalueofstocksandtounderstandwhyonestockispricedhigherthananother.SPECIALCASESA.CONSTANTGROWTH■Manyestablishedcompaniespridethemselvesonachievingconstantgrowth^inbothearningsanddividends,overanextendedperiodoftime.■Suchafore
7、castdoesnotprecludeyear-to-yeardeviationsfromthetrend.Sincepricesareallbasedonexpectations^itsimplymeansthatconstantgrowthisexpectedforearningsanddividends.■Withanexpectationofconstantgrowth,g,wecanestimatethevalueofthestockonthebasisoftheformulafora
8、growingperpetuity.PoPir-gwhere:g=therateofgrowthofthedividendinperpetuity.Example:■Ifautilitycompany(arelativelylowriskinvestment)hasadividendof$4plannedfornextyearandahistoryofincreasingdividendsby5%peryear,whatisthepricetoday?B.UNEVENGROWTH■Caremus
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