Off the cliff and back_ Credit conditions and international trade during the global

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1、JournalofInternationalEconomics87(2012)117–133ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectJournalofInternationalEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/jieOffthecliffandback?Creditconditionsandinternationaltradeduringtheglobalfinancialcrisis☆ab,⁎DavinChor,KalinaManovaaSchoolofEconomics,SingaporeMa

2、nagementUniversity,90StamfordRoad,Singapore178903,SingaporebDepartmentofEconomics,StanfordUniversity,579SerraMall,Stanford,CA94305,USAarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:WestudythecollapseofinternationaltradeflowsduringtheglobalfinancialcrisisusingdetaileddataonReceived14August2010monthlyUSimports.Wesh

3、owthatcreditconditionswereanimportantchannelthroughwhichthecrisisReceivedinrevisedform25April2011affectedtradevolumes,byexploitingthevariationinthecostofcapitalacrosscountriesandovertime,aswellAccepted26April2011asthevariationinfinancialvulnerabilityacrosssectors.Countrieswithhigherinterbankratesand

4、thustighterAvailableonline11May2011creditmarketsexportedlesstotheUSduringthepeakofthecrisis.Thiseffectwasespeciallypronouncedinsectorsthatrequireextensiveexternalfinancing,havelimitedaccesstotradecredit,orhavefewJELclassification:F10collateralizableassets.Exportsoffinanciallyvulnerableindustrieswereth

5、usmoresensitivetothecostofF14externalcapitalthanexportsoflessvulnerableindustries,andthissensitivityroseduringthefinancialcrisis.F42ThequantitativeimplicationsofourestimatesfortradevolumeshighlightthelargerealeffectsoffinancialG01crisesandthepotentialgainsfrompolicyintervention.G20©2011ElsevierB.V.Al

6、lrightsreserved.G28Keywords:InternationaltradeFinancialcrisisCreditconstraintsTradefinanceTradecredit11.Introductionandmotivationtheestimatedlossof5.4%inworldGDPduringthesameperiod.Thecontractioninexportswasespeciallyacuteforsmallopeneconomies,Theglobalfinancialcrisishashadfar-reachingrepercussionson

7、severalofwhomsawtheirtradevolumesinthesecondhalfof2008cross-bordereconomicactivity.Afterasharpandsuddencollapseinfallbyupto30%year-on-year.Thistradedeclinecontributedtotheinternationaltradeinthelastquartero