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1、ReviewofInternationalEconomics,22(1),1330,2014DOI:10.1111/roie.12094CurrencyUnions,ExportMargins,andProductDifferentiation:AnEmpiricalAssessmentforEuropeanMonetaryUnionHaraldBadingerandKemalTürkcan*AbstractThispaperreconsidersthetradeeffectsoftheeuro,providingadecompositionintoitseffectsont
2、heextensivemarginandintensivemargin.Furthermore,itrelatesthemoredisaggregatedestimatesfor93two-digitHSproductgroupstotheelasticityofsubstitution,therebytestingakeyhypothesisofheterogenousfirmtradetheory.Theestimatesfortheperiod1996–2011suggestatradeeffectoftheeuroofsome28%,whichhasmainlymate
3、rializedthroughtheintensivemargin.Anegativeneteffectoftheeuroontheextensivemarginisfoundforseveralproductgroups,supportinganecdotalevidencethatfirmshaveconsolidatedtheirproductvarietiesinresponsetotheeliminationofexchangeratevariability.Finally,thedisaggregatedestimatesareinlinewithheterogen
4、ousfirmtradetheorymodels,suggestingthatalargeelasticityofsubstitutiondampenstheeffectofatradecostreductionontheextensivemarginandamplifiesitseffectontheintensivemargin.1.IntroductionAlargebodyofevidencesuggeststhattheintroductionoftheeurohasledtoanincreaseintradeoftheeuroareamemberstates,thou
5、ghthemagnitudeoftheesti-matesvariesconsiderableacrossstudies.Forinstance,BunandKlaassen(2002)esti-mateanincreaseof38%inexportsasaresultoftheeuro.Miccoetal.(2003)findthattheimpactoftheeuroontraderangesfrom4%to16%,dependingonthesampleandestimationtechniqueused.ResultsbyFlamandNordström(2006a)s
6、uggestthattheintroductionoftheeurohasincreasedtradebetweeneuroareacountriesby15%onaveragefortheperiod1998–2002.Morerecently,BunandKlaassen(2007)obtainamuchsmallerestimateoftheeuro’stradeeffectsofaround3%.Chintrakarn(2008)showsthattwocountriessharingtheeurotradesomewherebetween9%and14%moreth
7、anothercountry-pairs.Baldwin(2006)surveystheliteratureandconcludesthattheeffectislikelytoliesomewherebetween5%and20%.Fromatheoreticalperspective,newtradetheory(Melitz,2003)suggeststwomainchannelsthroughwhichtheeuromighthaveaffectedtrade:(i)areductioninva
