The US Mortgage market and the Genesis

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1、1THEUSMORTGAGEMARKETANDTHEGENESISOFTHEFINANCIALCRISISArdenHallSWUFEJune20112Thispresentationrepresentstheauthor’sopinionsandnotnecessarilythoseoftheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphiaortheFederalReserveSystemAsimplestory:abubbleintheUShousingmarketcausedt

2、hefinancialcrisis35%250TEDSpread(left)4%200CaseShillerUSHousePriceIndex(right)3%1502%1001%500%0Jan-95Jan-00Jan-05Jan-10Thatsimplestoryraisesmorequestionsthanitanswers4Whatisabubble?Whydopeopleparticipateinbubblemarketswhenmostparticipantslose?Dofina

3、ncialcrisesalwaysfollowbubbles?WhydidtheUShousingbubblehappenwhenitdid?Whatotherfactorscontributedtothefinancialcrisis?5Whatisabubble?Pricesinabubblefollowapattern,butdoesthepatternalwaysindicateabubble?6CaseShillerUSHousePriceIndex140120250100802006

4、040150200100Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-1050Jan-95Jan-00Jan-05Jan-10SpotPriceofSilver$50NASDAQCompositeIndex50004000$4030002000$3010000Feb-71Jul-76Jan-82Jul-87Dec-92Jun-98Dec-03Jun-09$2011/18/1002/16/1105/17/1108/15/11Bubblesdon’thappeninstandard

5、pricetheory7PS11SP00DQQ10Forabubbletooccur,demandhastobesomehowendogenouslylinkedtosupply8PS11D1SP00D0QQ01Whydopeopleparticipateinbubblemarketswhen9mostparticipantslose?Bubblesarehardertoidentifyexantethanexpost.10“Whilelocaleconomiesmayexperiencesign

6、ificantpriceimbalances,anationalseverepricedistortionseemsmostunlikelyintheUnitedStates,givenitssizeanddiversity.”AlanGreenspan,October2004"...housingactivitywillremainhealthyforsometimetocome."DavidLereah,ChiefEconomist,NationalAssociationofRealtors,

7、October2005“Ourexpectationisthatthedeclinein[housingmarket]activityortheslowinginactivitywillbemoderate,thathousepriceswillprobablycontinuetorise,butnotatthepacethattheyhadbeenrising.Soweexpectthehousingmarkettocool,butnottochangeverysharply.”BenBerna

8、nke,February2006Bubblescreateincentivestoparticipateanddisincentivestooppose11"MarketscanremainirrationalalotlongerthanyouandIcanremainsolvent.“J.M.Keynes"...aslongasthemusicisplaying,you'vegottogetupanddance.We'restilldancing."CharlesP