Monetary Union in the Gulf

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1、MonetaryUnionintheGulfAtatimeofmomentousshiftsinthebalanceofworldeconomicforcesepito-mizedbythecurrentoilpriceboom,theweakeningUSdollarandtheglobalcreditcrunch,themeteoricriseoftheArabianPeninsulacannotbeunderstated.Neither,therefore,cantheirplannedmonetaryunion.Askeysuppliersofthew

2、orld’soilandgastheGulfstateshaveaccumulatedvastwealth:takentogethertheirsovereignwealthfundsarebyfartheworld’slargestandtheinfluenceofthesefundsisbecomingincreasinglyapparent.Thisbookprovidesathoroughanalysisofthescheduled2010monetaryunion.Itsfindingsarebasedonbothprimaryresearchandad

3、etailedempiricalanalysisoftheregion’seconomiesspanning1980–2006.Itassessestheregionagainstoptimalcurrencyareacri-teria,theEuropeancriteria,highlightsoutstandingpreparationsandconsiderstheunderlyingeconomicandpoliticalfactorsthatmayaidorindeeddelaythelaunchdate.Criticallythisbookargu

4、esthatthepresentdollar-pegexchangerateregimesarenolongeroptimal.ThefutureGulfdinarislikelytoseekamoreindependentpath.Theramificationsofthis–apotentialIslamicanchorcurrencyandanalternativeoil-invoicingcurrency–arealsoconsideredinsomedetail.EmilieJ.RutledgeisAssistantProfessorofEconomi

5、csattheUnitedArabEmiratesNationalUniversity.SheregularlycontributesarticlesandopinionpiecesonGCCeconomicissuestotheregionalpress.PreviouslysheworkedasaneconomistattheGulfResearchCenter,aDubai-basedthinktank.EmilieJ.Rutledge’snewbook,MonetaryUnionintheGulf:prospectsforasinglecurrency

6、intheArabianPeninsulaisthefirstsystematic,book-lengthtreatmentofthecaseforandagainstmonetaryunionamongthemembersoftheGulfCooperationCouncil.Itredefinesthefieldofexchangerateeco-nomicsfortheGulfstatesandraisesthedebatetoanewandhigherlevel.Thebookisasexcellentasitistimely.EachoftheGCCmem

7、bersisengagedinanevaluationofthemeritsanddemeritsofthebilateralUSdollarpegsthathavebeenthedominantexchangerateregimeoftheregion.DrRutledgepresentstherelevanteconomictheoriesclearlyandmarshalstheempiricalevidenceconvincingly.Herfamiliaritywithanddeepunder-standingoftheregionpermither

8、toaddressnotonlythe