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1、AFFORDABLEHOUSING:LESSONSFROMTHEUSANDCALIFORNIAEXPERIENCECynthiaKrollExecutiveDirector,StaffResearchFisherCenterforRealEstateandUrbanEconomicsSouthwesternUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,BankingandFinanceCollege,Chengdu,June2011LectureOutline•Whatis“Afforda
2、ble”Housing?•USandCaliforniaHousingPolicy—InstitutionsandIssues•Doesaffordablehousingpolicy“work”intheUS?Whichpolicies?Whatdoes“work”mean?•DidtheGreatRecession/FinancialCrisischangeaffordability?Diditchangepolicy?•LessonsforothersettingsWhatisAffordableHou
3、sing?•Affordabilityisanormativemeasure(notatestablestandard)•Normsaresetpolitically,institutionallyorbycustom,notscientifically.–Political/institutional:HUDstandardsforallocatingrentalhousingvouchers–Custom:Lenderrequirementsforhousingpricetoincomeorhousin
4、gpaymentasapercentofincome•Whatisaffordable,where,andforwhomwillvarywiththenormselectedaswellasthetypeofmeasure.Italsovarieswithbothpriceofhousingandincome.IndicatorsofAffordability•Shareofincomespentonhousing•Percentofhouseholdsspendingmorethanathresholds
5、hareofincomeonhousing.•Incomeresidualmeasure(howmuchremainsforliving/leisure)•Costofthenexthousingtransaction•Ratioofhousingpricetoannualincome(internationalcomparativemeasure)WhoUsesTheseIndicators?IndicatorUsersShareofincomespentGovernmentandonhousingfin
6、ancialinstitutionsPercentofhouseholdGovernmentinstitutionsexceedingthresholdCostofnexttransactionMarketanalysisIncomeresidualAcademicanalysis,politicaldialogPrice/incomeorInternationalearningsratiocomparisonsMedianHousingValueandMonthlyRentalCosts(2005-095
7、-YearEstimate)MedianValueMedianRent$600,000$1,200$500,000$1,000$400,000$800$300,000$600$200,000$400$100,000$200$0$0USCaliforniaTexasUSCaliforniaTexasSource:USBureauoftheCensus,AmericanCommunitySurveyShareofIncomeIndicators2simpleratios:–Shareofincomespento
8、nhousing:(MonthlyorAnnualHousingCost)_____________________________(MonthlyorAnnualIncome)–Shareofhouseholdspaying>x%ofincomeonhousing:(#ofHighPayingHouseholds)__________________________(TotalHouseholds)Shareo
