Assessment of Achievable potential for energy efficiency

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1、AssessmentofAchievablePotentialforEnergyEfficiencyandDemandResponseintheU.S.(2010–2030)IngridRohmundandGregWikler,GlobalEnergyPartners,LLCAhmadFaruqui,TheBrattleGroupOmarSiddiqui,ElectricPowerResearchInstituteRickTempchin,EdisonElectricInstituteABSTRACTUtilitiesandregulatorsacrosstheU.S.aresettin

2、gaggressivegoalsforenergyefficiencyinthefaceofincreasingcustomerdemandforelectricity.AkeymotivationforthesegoalsistoreduceCO2emissionsfromtheelectricitysector.Thispaperpresentspreliminaryresultsofanationwideassessmentofthepotentialforelectricitysavingsthroughenergyefficiency(EE)anddemandresponse(

3、DR)programs.ThestudyissponsoredbytheElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI)andtheEdisonElectricInstitute(EEI).ThestudyestimatestherealisticachievablepotentialforenergyefficiencythatwouldoccurwiththeimplementationandfulloperationofEEandDRprogramsandinitiativesnationwide.Theanalysisevaluatesthepotenti

4、alforenergyefficiencyimprovementinthemajorcategoriesofenergyendusethroughtheyear2030forthefourU.S.Censusregions.ThispaperpresentspreliminaryresultsfromtheEPRI/EEIstudyfortheU.S.asawhole.OurconferencepresentationattheAugust2008ACEEESummerStudywillincludefinalsavingsestimatesbyCensusregion,aswellas

5、theresultsofthescenarioanalysis.ExecutiveSummaryAccordingtotheEnergyInformationAdministration’s2008AnnualEnergyOutlook,adjustedforDSMprogramsembeddedasof2007,electricityusewillbe30%higherin2030thanitisin2008.Thisforecastalreadyaccountsformarket-drivenefficiencyimprovementsandtheimpactsofallFedera

6、lappliancestandardsandbuildingcodesthatresultfromlegislationwhichthereislegislation(suchasthe2007EnergyInformationandSecurityAct)andrulemakingprocedures.Ourforecastofpeakdemand,whichextrapolatesNERC’s2005PeakDemandandEnergyProjectionBandwidths,resultsinnoncoincidentpeakdemandthatis55%higherin2030

7、thanitisexpectedtobein2008.Basedonouranalysisofenergyefficiencyanddemandresponsemeasures,theelectricutilityindustrycanrealisticallyexpecttooffset37%ofthegrowthinelectricityuse(inTWh)by2030.Thisrepresents8.5%oftotalelec