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1、FELSLECTURESONPUBLICPOLICYANALYSISSponsoredbytheFelsCenterofGovernment,theUniversityofPennsylvaniaTheLimitsofOrganization/KENNETHJ.ARROWPowerandtheStructureofSociety/JAMESS.COLEMANTheMoonandtheGhetto/RICHARDH.NELSONTragicChoices/GUIDOCALABRESIandPHILIPBOBBITTMicromotivesa
2、ndMacrobehavior/THOMASC.SCHELLINGMicromotivesandMacrobehaviorTHOMASC.SCHELLINGW•W•NORTON&COMPANYNewYorkLondonCopyright©1978byW.W.Norton&Company,Inc.PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanadabyGeorgeJ.McLeodLimited,Toronto.PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.AllRightsReservedLibraryofC
3、ongressCataloginginPublicationDataSchelling,ThomasC1921-Micromotivesandmacrobehavior.(Felslecturesonpublicpolicyanalysis)Includesindex.1.Policysciences.2.Choice(Psychology).3.Socialchoice.4.Collectivebehavior.5.Socialproblems.I.Title.II.Series.H61.S3551978301.11'378-17119
4、ISBN0-393-05701-1ISBN0-393-09009-4pbk.234567890ContentsAcknowledgments71MICROMOTIVESANDMACROBEHAVIOR92THEINESCAPABLEMATHEMATICSOFMUSICALCHAIRS453THERMOSTATS,LEMONS,ANDOTHERFAMILIESOFMODELS814SORTINGANDMIXING:RACEANDSEX1355SORTINGANDMIXING:AGEANDINCOME1676CHOOSINGOURCHILDR
5、EN'SGENES1917HOCKEYHELMETS,DAYLIGHTSAVING,ANDOTHERBINARYCHOICES211Index245AcknowledgmentsWhenIreflectonitIamsurprisedathowmuchofwhatIwrite,includingthingsthatpleaseme,Iwriteatsomebody'sinvitation.JuliusMargolisaskedmetousetheFelsLecturestocollectsomethoughtsheknewIwaswork
6、ingon;Imighthavecollectedthemanyway,butImightnot,andsurelynotsosoon.EmmanuelMestheneurgedme.earliertoputonpapersomethoughtsheknewIwasworkingon;theyareheretoo,perhapsonlybecausehedid,Andsomepartsofthisbook,likeChapters2and7,weremoreyearsgettingstraightenedoutthanyoumightbe
7、lieve;ifyoulikethemyoucanthankanumberofpeoplewho,whilecontributingideasinprivateandinprint,wereespeciallygenerouswiththeirenthusiasm,anourishmentwithoutwhichIfindithardtowork.TheyareGrahamT.Allison,PhilipB.Heymann,MancurOlson,HowardRaiffa,CharlesL.Schultze,EdithM.Stokey,A
8、.MichaelSpence,andRichardJ.Zeckhauser.IfthebookreadswellitislargelybecauseJoyceHuntleyQuelchtype