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1、EMEABankingBaselIIIandEuropeanbanking:Itsimpact,howbanksmightrespond,andthechallengesofimplementationNovember2010PhilippHärleErikLüdersTheoPepanidesSonjaPfetschThomasPoppensiekerUweStegemann2ContentsExecutivesummary1Introduction2Assessingtheimpact4ImpactonEuropeanbanks4Comparin
2、gimpactinEuropeandtheUnitedStates5AdynamicperspectiveonEuropeanbanking6Box:Impactonbusinesssegments8Howbanksmightrespond12No-regretmoves13Balance-sheetrestructuring15Business-modeladjustments17Meetingthechallengesofimplementation20Unprecedentedcomplexityandinterdependence20Esti
3、matingthecosts22Gettingitright—andontime221BaselIIIandEuropeanbanking:Itsimpact,howbanksmightrespond,andthechallengesofimplementationExecutivesummarysubstantialcapitalmarketsandtradingbusinesswilllikelyfacesignificantbusiness-modelchallengesintheBaselIIIwillhavesignificantimpac
4、tontheEuropeannextfewyears.bankingsector.AstherulesarewrittentodayandbasedonQ22010balancesheets,by2019theindustrywillneedBanksarealreadyseekingtomanageROEinthenewabout€1.1trillionofadditionalTier1capital,€1.3trillionenvironmentbycuttingcostsandadjustingprices.Thereofshort-terml
5、iquidity,andabout€2.3trillionoflong-are,however,anumberofadditionalinterventions,termfunding,absentanymitigatingactions.bothgeneralandspecifictoBaselIII,thatbanksshouldconsider:TheimpactonthesmallerUSbankingsectorwillbesimilar,thoughthedriversofimpactvary.Weestimatethe—Asetof“n
6、oregret”interventionstoreducecapitalandTier1capitalshortfallat$870billion(€600billion),theliquidityinefficiencyfromsuboptimalimplementationgapinshort-termliquidityat$800billion(€570billion),ofthenewrulesandthegapinlong-termfundingat$3.2trillion(€2.2trillion).—Balance-sheetrestr
7、ucturingtoimprovethequalityofcapitalandreducecapitalneedsarisingfromBaselThecapitalneedisequivalenttoalmost60percentofIII’sdeductions,aswellasmoreeffectivemanagementallEuropeanandUSTier1capitaloutstanding,andofscarcebalance-sheetresourcestheliquiditygapequivalenttoroughly50perc
8、entofalloutstandingshort-termliquidity.—Business-model
