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1、JournalofEconomicPerspectives—Volume18,Number1—Winter2004—Pages99–112RationalChoiceTheoryandtheParadoxofNotVotingTimothyJ.FeddersentleastsinceDownss(1957)seminalworkAnEconomicTheoryofDemocracy,rationalchoicetheoristshaveappreciatedtheparadoxofnotvoting.InAalargeelec
2、tion,theprobabilitythatanindividualvotemightchangetheelectionoutcomeisvanishinglysmall.Ifeachpersononlyvotesforthepurposeofinfluencingtheelectionoutcome,thenevenasmallcosttovotelikeaminorscheduleconflictormildlybadweathershoulddissuadeanyonefromvoting.Yetitseemsthatma
3、nypeoplewillputupwithlonglines,dauntingregistrationrequirementsandeventhethreatofphysicalviolenceorarrestinordertovote.Giventhecentralplaceofvotingwithinpoliticaleconomy,thelackofanadequaterationalchoicemodeloflargeelectionswithcostlyvotingpresentsanobviousproblem.F
4、orthemostpart,theoristshavebypassedtheturnoutproblemeitherbyeliminatingvotersasstrategicactorsorbyassumingthatthedecisiontovoteisindependentofotherstrategicchoices.Theproblemwiththefirstapproachisthattheempiricalliteratureonvotingbehaviorprovidesconsiderableevidenceo
5、fapparentlystrategicbehavior.Inprimaryelections,thereisevidencethatvotersconditiontheirvotechoiceontheviabilityofcandidates(Abramson,Aldrich,PaolinoandRohde,1992).Inaseminalandcomprehensivestudy,Cox(1997)showsthatvotingpatternsandelectionoutcomesarebroadlyconsistent
6、withpatternsofbehaviorpredictedbystrategicvotingmodels.Forexample,underpluralityrule(inwhichthecandidatewiththemostvoteswinstheelection),yTimothyJ.FeddersenisWendellHobbsProfessorofManagerialEconomicsandDecisionSciences,KelloggSchoolofManagement,NorthwesternUniversi
7、ty,Evanston,Illinois.Hise-mailaddressistfed@kellogg.northwestern.edu.100JournalofEconomicPerspectivesmulticandidatecontestsgenerallyboildowntoacompetitionbetweentwocandidates.Theassumptionthatvotersbehavestrategicallyinthevotingboothbutnotwhendecidingtovotealsosee
8、mstocontradictempiricaldata.Forexample,voterturnoutisinverselyrelatedtothecostsofvoting(WolfingerandRosenstone,1980;Powell,1986;RikerandOrd
