Rational Choice

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1、RationalChoiceItzhakGilboaRationalChoiceRationalChoiceItzhakGilboaTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England(2010MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelec-tronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recordi

2、ng,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Forinformationaboutspecialquantitydiscounts,pleaseemailspecial_sales@mitpress.mit.edu.ThisbookwassetinPalatinoon3B2byAscoTypesetters,HongKong.PrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCo

3、ngressCataloging-in-PublicationDataGilboa,Itzhak.Rationalchoice/ItzhakGilboa.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-262-01400-7(hardcover:alk.paper)1.Rationalchoicetheory.2.Socialchoice.3.Decisionmaking.4.Gametheory.5.Microeconomics.I.Title.HM495.G55201030

4、20.13—dc22200903711910987654321Tomymother,andtothememoryofmyfatherContentsPrefacexiiiSuggestedReadingxviiIOptimization11FeasibilityandDesirability31.1Examples31.2SeparatingCanfromWant31.3WhatIsMeantbyRational?51.4Uncertainty61.5ZenandtheAbsurd71.6OnTheoriesandParadigms92Uti

5、lityMaximization112.1Example112.2TwoPoints172.3Interpretations172.3.1Normative182.3.2Descriptive192.3.3Metascientific202.4MeasurementIssues212.5UtilityandDisutility223ConstrainedOptimization253.1GeneralFramework253.2Example:TheConsumerProblem273.3MarginalityPrinciple29viiiCo

6、ntentsIIRiskandUncertainty334ExpectedUtility354.1Examples354.2ExpectedValueMaximization364.2.1i.i.d.RandomVariables364.2.2LawofLargeNumbers374.2.3PracticalMeaningofExpectedValue384.3ExpectedUtilityMaximization394.3.1vonNeumannandMorgenstern’sTheorem394.3.2UniquenessofUtilit

7、y404.3.3RiskAversion414.3.4ProspectTheory434.4ElicitationofUtility444.5FromSimpletoComplex465ProbabilityandStatistics495.1WhatIsProbability?495.2RelativeFrequenciesasObjectiveProbabilities525.3SubjectiveProbabilities545.4StatisticalPitfalls565.4.1ConfoundingConditionalProba

8、bilities575.4.2BiasedSamples595.4.3RegressiontotheMean615.4.4CorrelationandCausati