Dollarization and Financial Integration美元化与金融一体化

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1、FederalReserveBankofMinneapolisResearchDepartmentStaffReport385January2007DollarizationandFinancialIntegration∗CristinaArellanoUniversityofMinnesotaandFederalReserveBankofMinneapolisJonathanHeathcoteFederalReserveBoardGeorgetownUniversityandCEPRABSTRACTHowdoesacountry’schoiceofexchangeratere

2、gimeimpactitsabilitytoborrowfromabroad?Webuildasmallopeneconomymodelinwhichthegovernmentcanpotentiallyrespondtoshocksviadomesticmonetarypolicyandbyinternationalborrowing.Weassumethatdebtrepaymentmustbeincentivecompatiblewhenthedefaultpunishmentisequivalenttopermanentexclusionfromdebtmarkets

3、.Wecompareafloatingregimetofulldollarization.Wefindthatdollarizationispotentiallybeneficial,eventhoughitmeansthelossofthemonetaryinstrument,preciselybecausethislosscanstrengthenincentivestomaintainaccesstodebtmarkets.Givenstrongerrepaymentincentives,moreborrowingcanbesupported,andthusdollariza

4、tioncanincreaseinternationalfinancialintegration.ThispredictionoftheoryisconsistentwiththeexperiencesofElSalvadorandEcuador,whichrecentlydollarized,aswellaswiththatofhighly-indebtedcountrieslikeItalywhichadoptedtheEuroaspartofEconomicandMonetaryUnion:ineachcase,aroundthetimeofregimechange,sp

5、readsonforeigncurrencygovernmentdebtdeclinedsubstantially.∗Arellano:arellano@econ.umn.edu;Heathcote:jhh9@georgetown.edu.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilythoseoftheFederalReserveBankofMinneapolisortheFederalReserveSystem.1IntroductionTherecurrenceofcurrencyandfinanc

6、ialcrisesinemergingmarketshasgeneratedanintensedebateontheappropriateexchangerateregime.Dollarizationhasattractedspecialattention,inpartbecauseoftherecentofficialdollarizationofEcuadorandElSalvador.1Thekeydifferencebetweendollarizingandsimplypeggingtheexchangerateisthatdol-larizingrepresentsmo

7、repermanentrestrictionsondomesticmonetarypolicy.Thusthinkingaboutdollarizationleadsonetothinkingaboutwhatagovernmentmighthavetogainbytyingitshandsmoretightlywithregardstomonetarypolicy,whichinturnleadstotheissueofcredibility.Indiscussingpapersinaconferen