The validity of Wagner's Law in

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1、ThevalidityofWagner’sLawinGreeceduringthelast2centuries12PaparasDimitrios-ChristianRichterAbstractInthispaperweinvestigatethelong-runrelationshipbetweennationalincomeandgovernmentspendingbyusingGreekdatafrom1833until2010.Weuse5differentformulationsofWagner’slaw(thelon

2、gruntendencyforgovernmentexpendituretoexpandrelativetoeconomicgrowth)andfindthatempiricalresultsaresupportiveforWagner’slaw.Thedatasetspancoversaperiodofalmost2centuries;thelongdatasetthusensuresthereliabilityofourresultsintermsofstatisticalandeconomicconclusions.Furt

3、hermore,thedatasetcoverstheearlyperiodsofdevelopmentoftheGreekeconomy,aperiodofgrowth,industrialisationandmodernisationoftheeconomy,conditionswhichshouldbeconducivetoWagner’slaw.Ouranalysisprovidesevidenceoflongrunrelationshipbetweengovernmentspendingandnationalincome

4、,whiletheGrangercausalitytestsindicatethatcausalityrunsfromthenationalincometospending.Moreoverweincludetestsforstructuralchangestotakeintoaccountregimechangesthatoccurovertime.OurempiricalresultsareinaccordancewithotherstudiesexaminedthevalidityofWagner’slawinGreecea

5、ndinothereconomiesbyusinglongdataset.1.IntroductionOneofthemostdebatedissuesinpubliceconomicsliteratureisthesizeandtheroleofgovernmentactivity.Overthelastcenturythesizeofstateactivityrelativetotheeconomyhasexpandedinmostdevelopedanddevelopingcountries.Thisexpansionhas

6、evokedtheinterestofbotheconomistsandpoliticalscientists.Hence,severaltheoriesandhypotheseshavebeensuggestedinordertoexplainthegrowthofthepubliceconomyandalargeamountofempiricalstudieshasbeenwritten.Mostoftheanalyseshavefocusedonthedifferentformulationsandempiricaltest

7、softhestategrowthovertime,acrosscountriesoracrossgroupofcountries(EU,OECD,Sub-Saharan).Thesestudieshaveexaminedseveralfeaturesofstateactivitysuchaseconomic,political,institutional,fiscalandinternational.Therelationshipbetweengovernmentspendingandnationalincomeisveryim

8、portantformanyeconomicandpolicyissues.NowadaysEuropeanCountriesareinrecessionandgovernmentauthorities(InGreece,PortugalandIt