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1、TheMacroeconomistasScientistandEngineerN.GregoryMankiwHarvardUniversityMay2006N.GregoryMankiwistheRobertM.BerenProfessorofEconomics,HarvardUniversity,Cambridge,MA.IamgratefultoStevenBraun,JamesHines,DonaldMarron,DavidRomer,AndreiShleifer,TimothyTaylor,MichaelWaldman,an
2、dNoamYuchtmanforhelpfulcomments.Economistsliketostriketheposeofascientist.Iknow,becauseIoftendoitmyself.WhenIteachundergraduates,Iveryconsciouslydescribethefieldofeconomicsasascience,sonostudentwouldstartthecoursethinkinghewasembarkingonsomesquishyacademicendeavor.Ourc
3、olleaguesinthephysicsdepartmentacrosscampusmayfinditamusingthatweviewthemasclosecousins,butwearequicktoremindanyonewhowilllistenthateconomistsformulatetheorieswithmathematicalprecision,collecthugedatasetsonindividualandaggregatebehavior,andexploitthemostsophisticatedst
4、atisticaltechniquestoreachempiricaljudgmentsthatarefreeofbiasandideology(orsoweliketothink).HavingrecentlyspenttwoyearsinWashingtonasaneconomicadviseratatimewhentheU.S.economywasstrugglingtopulloutofarecession,Iamremindedthatthesubfieldofmacroeconomicswasbornnotasascie
5、ncebutmoreasatypeofengineering.Godputmacroeconomistsonearthnottoproposeandtesteleganttheoriesbuttosolvepracticalproblems.TheproblemsHegaveus,moreover,werenotmodestindimension.Theproblemthatgavebirthtoourfield—theGreatDepressionofthe1930s—wasaneconomicdownturnofunpreced
6、entedscale,includingincomessodepressedandunemploymentsowidespreadthatitisnoexaggerationtosaythattheviabilityofthecapitalistsystemwascalledinquestion.Thisessayoffersabriefhistoryofmacroeconomics,togetherwithanevaluationofwhatwehavelearned.Mypremiseisthatthefieldhasevolv
7、edthroughtheeffortsoftwotypesofmacroeconomist—thosewhounderstandthefieldasatypeofengineeringandthosewhowouldlikeittobemoreofascience.Engineersare,firstandforemost,problem-solvers.Bycontrast,thegoalofscientistsistounderstandhowtheworldworks.Theresearchemphasisofmacroeco
8、nomistshasvariedovertimebetweenthesetwomotives.Whiletheearlymacroeconomistswereengineerstryingtosolvepracticalproblem
