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1、DynamicScoringinaRomer-styleEconomyDeanScrimgeourColgateUniversityDecember27,2011AbstractThispaperanalyzeshowchangesintaxratesaffectgovernmentrevenueinaRomer-styleendogenousgrowthmodel.Lowertaxratesonfinancialincome(returnstophysicalcapitalandintelle
2、ctualproperty)doincreasethetaxbaseinthisenvironment,butnotenoughtoexpandrevenuefromthistaxalone.Lowerfinancialincometaxesstimulateinnovationandenhancelaborproductivityinthelongrun.Forplausibleparametervalues,thisgenerateshigheroveralltaxrevenuefortheg
3、overnmentinresponsetoareductioninthefinancialincometaxrate.Theanalysisrevealsthedynamicsoftheeconomytobeverysluggishandforsomevariablesnon-monotonic.Half-livesformanyvariablesareontheorderofdecades,ratherthanyears.Contact:DeanScrimgeour,EconomicsDepa
4、rtment,ColgateUniversity,13OakDrive,Hamil-ton,NY13346.Email:dscrimgeour@colgate.edu.ThankstoLewisDavis,ChadJones,LorenzKueng,ViktorTsyrennikov,PhilippeWingender,andseminarparticipantsatCarletonUniversityandColgateUniversityforcomments.2DEANSCRIMGEOUR
5、1.IntroductionPolicymakerswhowanttochangethetaxratesthatapplytocapitalincomeandwagesmustconsidertheeffectsthatthiswillhaveonoverallrevenues.Tradi-tionalapproachestoestimatingtherevenueeffectsoftaxratechangesfocusedonstaticbehavioralresponses–essentia
6、llytheshort-runresponseoflaborandcapitalincometoachangeinthetaxrate.1Fullerton(1982)discusseswhetherla-borincometaxreductionsmightinduceexpansionsoftaxrevenue,arguingthatsuchLaffercurveeffects(highergovernmentrevenueatlowertaxrates)areun-likelyduetol
7、owlaborsupplyelasticities.Malcomson(1986)studiesthesamequestionandemphasizestherelevanceofgeneralequilibriumeffects.Inspiteofskepticismabouttheshort-runrevenueenhancingeffectsoftaxcutsinthe1980s,recentstudieshaveconsideredthepossibilitythatthelong-ru
8、neffectofataxcutistoexpandthegovernment’staxcollection.Economicresearchhasgenerallybeenskepticaloflargeshort-runbehavioralresponsestotaxratechanges.Bycontrast,moreeconomistsbelievethatlong-runresponsesoflaborsupplyandespeciallyofcapitalsupplymaybelar
