s b - A_Skeptics_Guide_to_3D_Printing

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1、strategy+businessISSUE73WINTER2013ASkeptic’sGuideto3DPrintingExcitementaboutanynewtechnologyshouldbebalancedwiththeapplicationoftime-testedforecastingtools.BYTIMLASETERANDJEREMYHUTCHISON-KRUPATREPRINT00219essayTECHNOLOGYpredictwidespreadchangetothetechnologymanufacturingindustry’sstructure,wemus

2、treflectonhoweconomiesofscaleandtotallandedcostdriveinvestmentdecisions.There’snoquestionthat3Dprintingoffersanewmanufactur-ingmodel.Iteliminatestheneedforexpensive,customizedtooling.Andasanadditivemanufacturingapproachratherthanasubtractiveone,ituseslessmaterial.Thecostofdigitalprinterscontinue

3、stodecline;1startupsarenowofferinghobbyistversionsforlessthanUS$250.ButasourtechnologyforecastinganalysisASkeptic’sGuidewillshow,3Dprintingisn’tpoisedtotaketheplaceoffactoryproductionto3DPrintinganytimesoon.ToolsoftheTradeOneofthemosteffectivetoolsforExcitementaboutanynewtechnologyshouldforecast

4、ingtechnologydatesbackbebalancedwiththeapplicationoftime-testedtotheobservationsofaerospaceen-forecastingtools.gineerTheodoreP.Wright.Hebe-ganhiscareerwiththeU.S.NavyReserveFlyingprogram,wherehebyTimLaseterandClaimsthat3Dprinting(alsoreceivedpilottrainingandbecameJeremyHutchison-Krupatknownasdig

5、italprinting)ispoisedanaircraftinspector.Helaterjoinedtoshakeupthemanufacturingin-theCurtissAeroplaneCompany,orbusinessexecutives,sep-dustryindramaticfashionhavebeeneventuallyrisingtovicepresidentaratingtruetechnologicalontherise.ASeptember2013reportofengineering.In1936,WrightFbreakthroughsfromw

6、ish-frominvestmentadvisortheMotleypublishedanarticleintheJournalfulthinkingisinherentlychalleng-FoolevenwentsofarastoassertofAeronauticalSciencesinwhichheing.AsDanishphysicistNielsBohrthatthenewtechnologywill“closeofferedamathematicalmodelforstated,“Predictionisverydifficult,down112,000Chinesefa

7、ctories...predictingcostreductionsovertimeespeciallyaboutthefuture.”Mostofandlauncha21st-centuryindustrialbasedonyearsofobservingairplaneuscanrecallexamplesofmisguidedrevolutionrighthereintheU.S.A.”manufacturing.Specifically