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1、Team#7209Page35of35ForofficeuseonlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________TeamControlNumber7209 ProblemChosenBForofficeuseonlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2010MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)
2、SummarySheetSummaryInthispaper,wefirstestablishtheOffenceCircleModeltodeterminethepossiblescopeofacrimedetection.Comparedwiththetraditionalmethod,ourmethodismuchmoreaccurate,thecentreis12.67kmclosertotherealanchorpoint.Secondly，wecreateProbabilityModeltolocatetheanchor
3、point,andusetwoattenuationfunctions,oneisexponentialdecayfunctionandtheotherisnormalattenuationfunction.Theresultsobtainedare(53.817390-1.542570),(53.589390-1.918570)respectively.Comparedwiththerealanchorpoint，theexponentialdecayfunctionhasthebettereffect,theresultis9.
4、35kmclosertotherealanchorpoint.Withtheanalysisofseeminglymessycrimetimedata,weusetheGaussiandistribution,log-normaldistributionetc.tofitthedistributionofthecrimetime.Finally,throughcomputerprogrammingwithC++,wepredictthenextcrimetimeisFebruary4,1981withtheconfidencelev
5、elof81.2376%.Topredictingthenextcrimesite,weestablishtheDirectionmodelandBayesianmodel.Ourteamcalculatethetwomodelsrespectivelywiththepreviouscrimedata,thengettheresults:(53.394138，-1.621970)fortheDirectionmodeland(53.379986，-1.578862)forBayesianmodel.Thepredictednextc
6、rimesitethroughDirectionmodelis20.04kmawayfromtherealcrimesite,whilethroughBayesianmodelis9.17km.Thelatteris10.87kmclosertotherealcrimesite.Therealreasonisthattheyapplytodifferenttypesofsamples,inotherwords,theDirectionmodelissuitableforlinearsamples,whiletheBayesianMo
7、delfornon-linear.Attheendofthemodel,weintroducetheDoubleProbabilityModelbasedonBayesianAlgorithm,thismodelcombinethelocationandtimeofthenextcrime.Itcangiveacomprehensiveguidetothepolice.Infuturework,wewilldeveloptheSVMModel,collectsufficientcrime-relateddata.Furthermor
8、e，wecandesignasoftwarewhichwillhelpthepolicetocatchoffender.Keyword:GeographicProfiling;Bayesian;SVMAlgorithm;Probabi
