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1、2010MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)SummarySheet(Attachacopyofthispagetoeachcopyofyoursolutionpaper.)Typeasummaryofyourresultsonthispage.Donotincludethenameofyourschool,advisor,orteammembersonthispage.SummaryToreducethehuntingtimeforinvestigationandensuresafety
2、ofthegeneralpublic,weoptimizedtheCirclePrinciplebyGolden-sectionsearch,sothatanaccurategeographicalprofilewasabletobedrawninashorttime,througherrortestingbythetitlegivencaseofPeterSutcliffe,ourmodelsarereallyuseful,time-savingandaccurate.TaskI:weusethebasicCircle
3、Principleconfirmingaprimarygeographicalprofile,combiningandthemethodofprobability.Then,asmallerprofileappeared,andaftercomputerprogramming,theresultisveryreasonable.TaskII:inthisquestion,wemainlytakeGrayForecastandGM[1,1]predictingthenextlocation.Butthehighlighti
4、stheconjunctionwithourbalancetheory,factorsinfluencingthepredictionwereallsetasweight,Howtokeepbalanceisthespecialwaytoforecastthenextspot.TaskIII:sameasTaskII,theonlydifferentisthenumberofweightwasraised.TaskIV:theerroristhedistancebetweentherealisticlocationand
5、predictinglocation,inaddition.it’squitelow.Keyword:Golden-sectionSearchGrayForecastBalanceTheoryTheCenterofGeographicalProfilePrimaryGeographicalProfileCirclePrinciplePROBLEMB:AnEasyProfilingModelContent1.Introduction&Assumption51.1Introduction51.2Assumption52.So
6、lutionofTaskI52.1Analysis52.2Profilingmodel62.2.1Primaryscheme62.2.2Targetscheme62.3ModelTesting73.SolutionofTaskII93.1Predictingmodel94.SolutionofTaskIII124.1Intensivemodel125.SolutionofTaskIV125.SensitivityAnalysis126.Executivesummary167.Reference178.Appendix18
7、1.Introduction&Assumption1.1IntroductionCriminologyhelpsthepolicedealingwithcasesmoreeffectually,especiallyforarrestingsuspectofserialcriminal.Reducinghunttimeisveryimperativeforthepublicsafety,consequentlyanewwordwasbornamongalongperiodofcriminalinvestigation,wh
8、ichis“geographicalprofile”[1].Anditisaninvestigativemethodologythatmakesuseofthelocationsofaconnectedseriesofcrimestodeterminethemostprobableareaofoffenderresi
