Energy Use and CO2 Emissions in China Retrospect and Prospect

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1、ENERGYUSEANDCO2EMISSIONSINCHINA:RETROSPECTANDPROSPECTPETERSHEEHANANDFIONASUNCLIMATECHANGEWORKINGPAPERNo.4,2006EnergyUseandCO2EmissionsinChina:RetrospectandProspectPeterSheehanandFionaSunAbstractFormorethantwodecadesafterthe‘openingtothemarket’in1979Chin

2、aachievedrapidexpansionwithlowgrowthinenergyuse,theenergygrowthratebeingonlyabouthalfthatofGDP.Thishasnotcontinuedinrecentyears;over2001-05realGDPgrewby45%andenergyuseby57%.During1979-2001fallingenergyintensities,inbothsecondaryandtertiaryindustries,sub

3、stantiallyoffsettheimpactonenergydemandofhighgrowthandstructuralchange,butthedeclineinsectoralintensitiesceasedafter2001.Chinawillfinddifficulttoachievefurtherreductionsinenergyintensitypriorto2010,andmajorpolicyinitiativesorstructuralchangemaybenecessa

4、rytoreturntoanenergyelasticityofGDPofmuchlessthanone.AnunchangedpolicyprojectionshowsgrowthinenergyuseandCO2emissionsfromfuelcombustioninChinaover2002-30of6.7%and6.5%perannumrespectively.SuchgrowthwillplaceheavypressureonbothChineseandglobalsuppliesofen

5、ergy,andwillhavemajorimplicationsfortheworld’sclimate.1.IntroductionTherehasbeenwidespreaddiscussioninrecentyearsabouttherapidrateofeconomicgrowthtakingplaceinChina,especiallysinceChina’sentryintotheWorldTradeOrganisationin2001,andabouttheimpactofthatde

6、velopmentonworldmarketsforcoal,oilandnaturalgas.TherateofgrowthinGDPandinenergyusehasindeedbeenrapid.OfficialfiguresputrealGDPgrowthfor2005at9.9%,withaveragegrowthover2001–2005of9.8%,whilegrowthintotalenergyconsumptionoverthefour-yearperiodwas11.6%peran

7、num(NBSC2006a).SuchexplosivegrowthinenergyusecaughttheChineseGovernment,energyanalystsandenergyprovidersinChinaunaware,andsevereshortagesdevelopedin2004and2005.Sincethe‘openingtothemarket’in1979theenergyintensityofChina’sGDPfellcontinuouslythroughto2001

8、,asenergyusebecamemoreefficientandgrewlessrapidlythanGDP.Thisdeclineinenergyintensitywasespeciallymarkedinthesecondhalfofthe1990s,sothattheshifttoratesofgrowthinenergyuseinexcessofGDPgrowthafter2001hadprofoundandunexpectedimplica