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1、TheSpratlyIslandsDispute:Order-BuildingonChina’sterms?Dosch,J.(2011).TheSpratlyIslandsDispute:Order-BuildingonChina’sterms?.HarvardInternationalReview,16.南沙群岛争端：秩序建构是否中国说了算？AstheresultofChina’sparticipationinworldtradeanditsconsequentgrowingdemandforoverseasenergyandrawmaterials,theSouth
2、ChinaSeahasbecomeanincreasinglyimportantresourceforBeijing.China’sdemandforimportedenergyresourcesispredictedtoriseto500milliontonsofoilimportsandover100billioncubicmetersofnaturalgasby2020.Forcomparison,in2009Chinaimported204milliontonsofoilandjustabout5billioncubicmetersofnaturalgas. B
3、ecauseofitsrapidlyincreasingenergyconsumption,Chinawillbemoreactivelyinvolvedinoilandgasexplorationinitsadjacentseaareasandinsecuringtheoilsupplyroutesatsea.Otherclaimants,ofcourse,valuethisresourceforthesamereasonsand,justasinChina’scase,haveseennationalismandgeostrategicinterestsentert
4、heirpolicyequations.Therefore,theSouthChinaSeahasbeenhosttoterritorialdisputesthatareamongthemostcontentiousandvolatileintheAsia-Pacifictheater.Amidtheintensecompetitionsforitsvastnaturalresources,theSouthChinaSea’sroleinregionalsecurityandstabilityhasneverbeenmoreimportant.作为中国参与世界贸易的结果
5、，随之而来的是对海外能源和原材料的需求增长，南中国海已经成为中国越来越重要的能源地。据预测，到2020年，中国对进口资源的需求中，石油的进口量将上升到5亿吨，天然气将超过1000亿立方米。相比之下，2009年中国石油的进口量仅2.04亿吨，天然气仅50亿立方米。由于能源消耗的急速增长，中国将更积极参与到对相邻海域的石油和燃气的开发中，以及保证海上输油管道的安全。当然，其他国家也因为同样的原因看重能源，仅以中国为例，已经认识到要将国际主义和地缘政治利益纳入他们的政策方程式中。所以，在亚太平洋地区最具争议和善变的议题中，南中国海已经成为领土争端的主体。在争夺大量自然资源的激
6、烈竞争中，没有比南中国海在区域安全和稳定中的角色更重要的了。AttheheartofthesedisputeslietheSpratlyIslands–acollectionofcoralreefs,atolls,islets,islands,andsandbarsscatteredoveraseazoneofsome410,000squarekilometers.Thisareaisclaimed,inwholeorinpart,byChina,Taiwan,Vietnam,Malaysia,Brunei,andthePhilippines.Althoughtheto
7、talareaoftheislandsdoesnotexceedtensquarekilometres,theSpratlyIslands’geostrategicandeconomicsignificanceareinvaluable.LinkingthePacificandIndianOceans,theSouthChinaSeaseespassageofnearly50percentofglobalmerchanttrafficand80percentofcrudeoiltransportsenroutetoJapan,SouthK
