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1、Unit7TheArtofSmartGuessingBryanW.Mattimore1.Severalyearsago,interviewingcandidatesforajob,Igrewtiredofasking"whatexperiencedoyouhave?"SoIdecidedonaone-questionquiztofindouthowresourcefulathinkerthenewhiremightbe.Hereitis:2.YouareonayachtsailingthePacificOcean.Yournavigatoranno
2、uncesyouareoverthedeepestpoint,theMarianaTrench.Justthen,aclumsyguestaccidentallydropsa12-poundcannonballovertheside.HowlongwillittakeforthecannonballtoreachthebottomoftheOcean?3.Beforereadingon,pleasetrytosolvethisyourself—payingspecialattentiontohowyoumightsolveit.4.Didyouma
3、keacompletelywildguessbecause"therewasn'tenoughinformation"?Didyougettooboggeddowninthedetailstryingtocomeupwiththe"exactlyright"answer?Ordidyouzeroinonthetwomostimportantproblems—howdeepistheMarianaTrenchandhowfastmightacannonballfallthroughthewater—thenhazardaguesstimate?5.M
4、ostofmycandidatessimplymadeawildguess,thinkingthattheycouldn'tbe100-percentright.Rarelywassomeonewillingtoriskanapproximation.6.Whatdoesthishavetodowithbusinessorcreativity?Agreatdeal.Intherealworld,wefrequentlyneedtomakedecisionswhenthefullinformationdoesnotexist.Fromwhatfood
5、sweeattohowtoraiseourkids,creativepeoplemustthinkforthemselves.Theremaynotbethetimeorthemoneytomakesureofallyourdecisions.Yourbestguesswilloftenbethebestyoucando.7.Suppose,forexample,you'vebeenaskedtowriteamarketingplanforanewtelephonedevicethatwillsendyourname,company,address
6、andtelephonenumbertoavisualdisplayorprinteronanotherperson'sphone.Inadditiontoconventionaloutletslikemassmerchandisersandelectronicsstores,you'dliketoknowthenumberof"phonestores"intheUnitedStates.Unfortunately,thisfigureisnotavailable,eitherfromthemarket-researchhousesorfromth
7、eU.S.government.Whatdoyoudo?8.Onesolutionwouldbetogotoyourlocallibrary,pulloutafewphonedirectoriesfromaroundthecountry,turntotheYellowPagesandstartcounting.Youcouldthenguesstimatehowmanystoresper100,000peopleineachofthecitiesyoucounted.This,bytheway,isexactlywhatamarketingcons
8、ultantIknowdidforalargetelecommunicationsclient.9.Thequestion
