综合教程 第五册 unit 8 the art of smart guessing

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1、Unit8TheArtofSmartGuessingSeveralyearsagointerviewingcandidatesforajobIgrewtiredofaskingWhatexperiencedoyouhaveSoIdecidedonaone-questionquiztofindouthowresourcefulathinkerthenewhiremightbe.Hereitis:几年前我厌倦问面试应聘者“你有什么经验”所以我决定用一个问题的测验来了解新员工有多么的足智多谋。那就是YouareonayachtsailingthePa

2、cificOcean.YournavigatorannouncesyouareoverthedeepestpointtheMarianaTrench.Justthenaclumsyguestaccidentallydropsa12-poundcannonballovertheside.Howlongwillittakeforthecannonballtoreachthebottomoftheocean你在一艘航行于太平洋的游艇上。你的导航仪显示你是在最深的地方——马里亚纳海沟之上。就在那时一个笨拙的客人不小心将一枚12磅重的炮弹扔了下去。炮弹落

3、到海底需要多长时间Beforereadingonpleasetrytosolvethisyourself--payingspecialattentiontohowyoumightsolveit.在继续阅读之前请设法自己解决这个问题——特别注意你如何解决它。DidyoumakeacompletelywildguessbecausetherewasntenoughinformationDidyougettooboggeddowninthedetailstryingtocomeupwiththeexactlyrightanswerOrdidyouze

4、roinonthetwomostimportantproblems--howdeepistheMarianaTrenchandhowfastmightacannonballfallthroughthewater--thenhazardaguesstimate你是否因为“没有足够的信息”而做了一个完全的猜测你是否过于陷入细节试图找出“正确”答案还是你瞄准的两个最重要的问题——马里亚纳海沟有多深和炮弹在水中以多块的速度落下——然后大胆猜测Mostofmycandidatessimplymadeawildguessthinkingthatifthey

5、couldntbe100-percentrighttherewasnousetryingtobe95-percentright.Rarelywassomeonewillingtoriskanapproximation.我的大多数应聘者只是胡乱猜测想他们认为自己不可能100正确即使95正确也是没有用的。很少有人愿意大胆猜测。WhatdoesthishavetodowithbusinessorcreativityAgreatdeal.Intherealworldwefrequentlyneedtomakedecisionswhenthefullin

6、formationdoesnotexist.Fromwhatfoodsweeattohowtoraiseourkidscreativepeoplemustthinkforthemselves.Theremaynotbethetimeorthemoneytomakesureofallyourdecisions.Yourbestguesswilloftenbethebestyoucando.这与商业或创造力有什么关系呢事实上有很多关系。在现实世界中我们经常需要在没有完整信息的情况下做出决定。从我们吃什么食物到如何培养自己的孩子有创造力的人必须独立思

7、考。你可能没有时间或金钱来确保你所有的决定。最好的猜测常常会成为你最应该做的事情。Supposeforexampleyouvebeenaskedtowriteamarketingplanforanewtelephonedevicethatwillsendyournamecompanyaddressandtelephonenumbertoavisualdisplayorprinteronanotherpersonsphone.Inadditiontoconventionaloutletslikemassmerchandisersandelectr

8、onicsstoresyoudliketoknowthenumberofphonestoresintheUnitedStates.Unfortunat