The effects of published polls on citizens(1)翻译

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1、TheEffectsofPublishedPollsonCitizens公开民意调查对市民的影响Modempoliticalopinionpollsareaccompaniedbytwoconstants:thedebateabouttheirqualityontheonehand(-»TheMethodologicalStrengthsandWeaknessesofSurveyResearch),andthedebateabouttheirallegedeffectsintherun-uptoele

2、ctionsandvotingbehaviorontheother.Thelatterincludesnumerouspoliticalefforts(someofwhichhavebeenimplemented)toprohibitpublicationsofopinionpollspriortovoting(FoundationforInformation,2003;—>TheLegalStatusofPublicOpinionResearch,intheWorld).Furthermore,th

3、isallegedeffectgoeshandinhandwiththestrongassumptionsofjournalistsconcerningtheimpactofpublishingpollresults(Donsbach&Antoine.1990;Hardmeier,2000;—►AttitudesofJournalistsTowardPublicOpinionResearch)andsoongaverisetoanalysesaboutthepress-pollingconnectio

4、n(Crespi,1980;Ladd,1980)orthenewsmedia’suseofpolls(—►TheNewsMedia’sUseofOpinionPolls).Theeffectsofpublishedpollsonvotersarethefocusofthepresentchapter.现代政治民意调查伴随着两个不变的事物：一个是对调查质量的讨论(调查研究方法论的优势和劣势)，另一个是选举预备阶段和投票行为中所谓的效应。后者包括了许多为防止民意调查在选举（信息基础，2003；民意调查在世

5、界上的法律地位）之前公开的政策（其中一些已经开始实施）。此外，这个所谓的效应与记者对公开民意调查结果影响的有力假设密切相关（Donsbach&Antoine.1990;Hardmeier,2000;—►《记者对公开民意调查的态度》），并且很快引发了对压力投票关联的分析，以及媒体对民意调查的利用的分析（《媒体对民意调查的利用》）。本章将集中讨论民意调查发布对投票人的影响。Theremainderofthischapterisorganizedalongthreeanswerstothequestionw

6、hytherehavebeensomanyassumptionsaboutastrongimpactofpublishedpolls.Thefirstanswerimpliesadifferentiationbetweenthedependentvariables(effectonwhat?)andsummarizesthecorrespondingmeta-analyticalfindings.Thesecondanswersummarizesthecurrentmediaimpactresearc

7、hthatprovidesimportanttheoreticaltoolsforevaluatingpossibleeffects:theroleofpredispositionsaswellasissueandcampaigncharacteristicsthatmayinterveneinprocessesofinfluence.Themeta-analyticalfindingthattheliteratureonpollingimpactmergesveryheterogeneouseffe

8、ctsgivesrisetothethirdanswer:Thediscussionabouteffectsofopinionpollsneedstodifferentiatetoamuchgreaterextentbetweendifferenteffectsandpossibleprocesses,whichattimesevencanceleachout.Thismayagainhighlightthecomplexityofthesepossib