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1、FOUNDERSFUNDWHATHAPPENEDTOTHEFUTURE?ByBruceGibneyINTRODUCTIONWeinvestinsmartpeoplesolvingdifficultproblems,oftendifficultscientificorengineeringproblems.Here’swhy:TheProblemWehavetwoprimaryandrelatedinterests:01.Findingwaystosupporttechnologicaldevelopment(technologyisthefundamentald
2、riverofgrowthintheindustrializedworld).02.Earningoutstandingreturnsforourinvestors.1Fromthe1960sthroughthe1990s,venturecapitalwasanexcellentwaytopursuethesetwininterests.From1999throughthepresent,theindustryhaspostednegativemeanandmedianreturns,withonlyahandfuloffundshavingdoneverywe
3、ll.Whathappened?VC’sLongNightmareTounderstandwhyVChasdonesopoorly,ithelpstoapproachthefuturethroughthelensofVCportfoliosduringtheindustry’sheyday,comparingpastportfoliostoportfoliosastheyexisttoday.Inthe1960s,venturecloselyassociatedwiththeemergingsemiconductorindustry(Intel,e.g.,was
4、oneofthefirst–andisstilloneofthegreatest–VCinvestments).Inthe1970s,computerhardwareandsoftwarecompaniesreceivedfunding;the1980sbroughtthefirstwavesofbiotech,mobility,andnetworkingcompanies;andthe1990saddedtheInternetinitsvariousguises.Althoughsuccessnowmakestheseinvestmentsseemblandl
5、ysensible,evenobvious,theindustriesandcompaniesbackedbyventurewereactuallyextraordinarilyambitiousfortheireras.Althoughallseemedatleastpossible,therewasnoguaranteethatanyofthesetechnologiescouldbedevelopedsuccessfullyorturnedintohighlyprofitablebusinesses.WhenH-Pdevelopedthepocketcal
6、culatorin1967,evenH-Pitselfhadseriousdoubtsabouttheproduct’scommercialviabilityandonlyinterventionbythefounderssavedthecalculator.Later,whentheheadsofmajorcomputingcorporations(IBM,DEC)openlyquestionedwhetheranyindividualwouldeverwantorneedacomputer–oreventhatcomputersthemselveswould
7、besmallerthanaVW–investmentincompanieslikeMicrosoftandAppleinthemid-1970sseemedfairlybold.In1976,whenGenentechlaunched,thefieldofrecombinantDNAtechnologywaslessthanfiveyearsoldandnoestablishedplayerexpectedthatinsulinorhumangrowthhormonecouldbeclonedorcommerciallymanufactured,muchles
8、sbyastart-up
