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1、REVIEWOFTHEMONTHTheGlobalStagnationandChinaJOHNBEllaMyFOsTERandROBERTW.McCHEsNEyFiveyearsaftertheGreatFinancialCrisisof2007–09beganthereisstillnosignofafullrecoveryoftheworldeconomy.Consequently,concernhasincreasinglyshiftedfromfinancialcrisisandrecessiontoslowgrowthorstagnation,causingsomet
2、odubthecurrenteratheGreatStagnation.1Stagnationandfinancialcrisisarenowseenasfeedingintooneanother.ThusIMFManagingDirectorChristineLagardedeclaredinaspeechinChinaonNovember9,2011,inwhichshecalledfortherebalancingoftheChineseeconomy:Theglobaleconomyhasenteredadangerousanduncertainphase.Advers
3、efeedbackloopsbetweentherealeconomyandthefinancialsectorhavebecomeprominent.Andunemploymentintheadvancedeconomiesremainsunacceptablyhigh.Ifwedonotact,andacttogether,wecouldenteradownwardspiralofuncertainty,financialinstability,andacollapseinglobaldemand.Ultimately,wecouldfacealostdecadeoflow
4、growthandhighunemployment.2Tobesure,afewemergingeconomieshaveseeminglybuckedthegeneraltrend,continuingtogrowrapidly—mostnotablyChina,nowtheworld’ssecondlargesteconomyaftertheUnitedStates.Yet,asLagardewarnedherChineselisteners,“Asiaisnotimmune”tothegeneraleconomicslowdown,“emergingAsiaisalsov
5、ulnerabletodevelopmentsinthefinancialsector.”SosharpweretheIMF’swarnings,dovetailingwithwidespreadfearsofasharpChineseeconomicslowdown,thatLagardeinlateNovemberwasforcedtoreassureworldbusiness,declaringthatstagnationwasprobablynotimminentinChina(theBloomberg.comheadlineran:“IMFSeesChineseEco
6、nomyAvoidingStagnation.”)3Nevertheless,concernsregardingthefutureoftheChineseeconomyarenowwidespread.FewinformedeconomicobserversbelievethatthecurrentChinesegrowthtrendissustainable;indeed,manybelievethatifChinadoesnotsharplyaltercourse,itisheadedtowardaseverecrisis.JohnBellamyFoster(jfoster
7、@monthlyreview.org)iseditorofMonthlyReviewandprofessorofSociologyattheUniversityofOregon.RobertW.McChesney(rwmcches@uiuc.edu)isGutgsellEndowedProfessorofCommunicationsattheUniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-Champaign.12MONTHlyREVIEW/FEBRuaRy2012StephenRo
