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1、TheGreaTrebalancinGTheGreaTrebalancinGTrade,Conflict,andthePerilousRoadAheadfortheWorldEconomyMiChAElPETTisPrincetonUniversityPressPrincetonandOxfordCopyright©2013byPrincetonUniversityPressPublishedbyPrincetonUniversityPress,41WilliamStreet,Princeton,NewJersey08540IntheUni
2、tedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,6OxfordStreet,Woodstock,OxfordshireOX201TWpress.princeton.eduAllRightsReservedSixthprinting,andfirstpaperbackprinting,withanewprefacebytheauthor,2014PaperbackISBN:978-0-691-16362-8TheLibraryofCongresshascatalogedtheclotheditionofthisbook
3、asfollowsPettis,Michael.Thegreatrebalancing:trade,conflict,andtheperilousroadaheadfortheworldeconomy/MichaelPettis.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-691-15868-6(hbk.)1.Balanceoftrade.2.Balanceofpayments.3.Internationaltrade.4.Internationaleconomicrel
4、ations.5.Financialcrises.I.Title.HF1014.P4620133829.17—dc232012039175BritishLibraryCataloging-in-PublicationDataisavailableThisbookhasbeencomposedinMinionPro,Futura,andITCMonaLisaStdPrintedonacid-freepaper.PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica791086Tomymom,fromwhommostofmyvery
5、fewgoodhabitscome,andtomyfriendsZhangGengwang,CharlesSaliba,andthebrilliantformerandcurrentstudentsofmycentralbankseminaratPekingUniversity,whohavehelpedmakemytenyearsinChina(andcounting)arealpleasure.“ButIdon’twanttogoamongmadpeople,”saidAlice.“Oh,youcan’thelpthat,”saidth
6、eCat.“We’reallmadhere.”—LewisCarrollTheexportationofourmoneysintradeofmerchandizeisameanstoincreaseourtreasure.—TomasMunofLondon,merchant,1664Thecrisistakesamuchlongertimecomingthanyouthink,andthenithappensmuchfasterthanyouwouldhavethought.—RudigerDornbuschCONTENTSPrefacet
7、othePaperbackEditionxichapteroneTradeImbalancesandtheGlobalFinancialCrisis1Underconsumption4TheDifferentExplanationsofTradeImbalance6DestabilizingImbalances9WeHavetheTools11WhytheConfusion?14SomeAccountingIdentities17TheInanityofMoralizing19TheNewEconomicWriting22Chaptertw
8、oHowDoesTradeInterventionWork?26TradeInterventionAffectstheSavingsRate29CurrencyManipulat
