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1、APolitical-EconomyTheoryofTradeAgreementsGiovanniMaggiPrincetonUniversityandNBERAndrésRodríguez-ClarePennsylvaniaStateUniversityandNBEROctober2005AbstractWedevelopamodelwheretradeagreements–inadditiontocorrectingterms-of-tradeexternalities–helpgovernmentstocommitvis-à-vis
2、domesticindustriallobbies.Themodelallowsustoexplorehowthecharacteristicsofthepoliticalenvironmenta¤ectthestructureofthetradeagreementandtheextentoftradeliberalization.Themodelalsohighlightstheroleofintersectoralcapitalmobilityindeterminingtradeliberalization.Inadynamicexte
3、nsionofthemodel,weexploretheextenttowhichtradeliberalizationoccursgradually,andhowitsspeeddependsonthefundamentalsoftheproblem.Keywords:tradeagreements,domesticcommitment,termsoftrade,lobbyingforpro-tection,capitalmobility.JELclassi…cation:F13,D72Wethankseminarparticipant
4、satECARES,EnteLuigiEinaudidiRoma,FederalReserveBankofNewYork,FGVRiodeJaneiro,IADB,PennStateUniversity,SouthernMethodistUniversity,SyracuseUniver-sity,UniversityofTexasatAustin,UniversityofVirginia,UniversityofWisconsin,VanderbiltUniversityandthe2005NBERSummerInstituteforve
5、ryusefulcomments.GiovanniMaggithankstheNationalScienceFoundationfor…nancialsupport.1IntroductionThehistoryoftradeliberalizationafterWorldWarIIisintimatelyrelatedwiththecreationandexpansionoftheGATT(nowWTO),andwiththesigningofcountlessbilateralandregionaltradeagreements.Cle
6、arly,therearestrongforcespushingcountriestosigninternationaltradeagreements,anditisimportantforeconomistsandpoliticalscientiststounderstandwhattheseforcesare.Whydocountriesengageintradeagreements?Whatdeterminestheextentandformofliberalizationthattakesplaceinsuchagreements?
7、ThestandardtheoryoftradeagreementsdatesbacktoJohnson(1954),whoarguedthat,intheabsenceoftradeagreements,countrieswouldattempttoexploittheirinternationalmarketpowerbytaxingtrade,andtheresultingequilibrium(tradewar)wouldbeine¢cientforallcountriesinvolved.Internationaltradeagr
8、eementscanbeseenasawaytopreventsuchatradewar.Thisideawaslaterformalizedinmoderngame-theor
