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1、ReviewofInternationalEconomics,22(2),253274,2014DOI:10.1111/roie.12108ASimpleTheoryofTrade,FinanceandFirmDynamicsGabrielFelbermayrandGilbertSpiegel*AbstractAstylizedmonopolisticcompetitionmodelofinternationaltradeisproposedwhereÞrmsdifferwithrespecttotheexpec
2、tedeconomiclifetimeoftheirinnovations.Uponentry,theyreceiveacommonlyobservedsignalwhichisupdatedovertime.Jointlywithpartialirreversibilityofinvestment,thisgeneratesheterogeneityineffectivediscountratesand,thus,inthecostofÞnance.Inlinewithevidence,themodelpred
3、ictsanegativecorrelationbetweenÞrmsÕÞnancingcostsandtheirage.OveraÞrmÕslifecycle,perperiodnetproÞtsandtheexportparticipationprobabilitygrow.ExportersarelesslikelytoexitthanpurelydomesticÞrms.BeliefupdatingentailsexcessiveÞnancingofincumbentsrelativetoentrants
4、andtoomuchexporting.Asymptotically,tradeliberalizationreducesoverallgeneralequilibriumexitrates,butitdoesnotnecessarilyincreasewelfare.Withmultipleasymmetricexportmarkets,Þrmsgraduallyexpandtheirmarketcoverageandtotalsales.AconÞdencecrisismodeledbybeliefrever
5、sioncausesanover-proportionaldecreaseinexports,therebyofferinganovelinterpretationofthetradeslumpin2008/09.1.IntroductionMelitz(2003)andfollowingtheoreticalworkhasshedlightontheroleofproductiv-ityheterogeneityfortheeffectofinternationaltradeonÞrmbehaviorandag
6、gregateoutcomes.GiventhepresenceofÞxedcosts,onlymoreproductiveÞrmssortintoexporting,andareductionoftradecostsincreasesaggregateproductivity.SimilarselectioneffectscanbederivedfromÞrm-leveldifferencesinperceivedproductquality(BaldwinandHarrigan,2011)orthedegre
7、eoftradabilityofoutput(BerginandGlick,2009).Thecorepredictionofthesemodels,namelythatmorecompetitiveÞrmsaremorelikelytobeexporters,enjoysmassiveempiricalsupport(Bernardetal.,2007).AsmallerstrandoftheoreticalworkintroducesheterogeneityregardingÞxedmarketaccess
8、costsintotheKrugman(1980)frameworkwhilekeepingmar-ginalrevenuesconstantacrossÞrms(SchmittandYu,2001;JorgensonandSchrder,2008).Unrecognizedinthisliterature,Þrmsalsodifferwithrespecttotheir
