An empirical analysis of trade-related redistribution and the political viability of free trade

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1、JournalofInternationalEconomics99(2016)156–178ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectJournalofInternationalEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/jieAnempiricalanalysisoftrade-relatedredistributionandthepoliticalviabilityoffreetrade☆a,⁎,DanielL.Millimeta,b,1JamesLakeaSouthernMethod

2、istUniversity,USAbIZA,GermanyarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Eveniffreetradecreatesnetwelfaregainsforacountryasawhole,theassociateddistributionalimplicationscanReceived19September2014underminethepoliticalviabilityoffreetrade.Weshowthattrade-relatedredistribution—aspresentlyReceivedinrevi

3、sedform18October2015constituted—modestlyincreasesthepoliticalviabilityoffreetradeintheUS.Wedosobyassessingthecausalef-Accepted14January2016fectofexpectedredistributionassociatedwiththeUSTradeAdjustmentAssistanceprogramonUSCongressionalAvailableonline28January2016votingbehavioronelevenFreeT

4、radeAgreements(FTAs)between2003and2011.WefindthataonestandarddeviationincreaseinexpectedredistributionleadstoanaverageincreaseintheprobabilityofvotinginfavorofanJELclassification:F13FTAof1.8percentagepoints.Althoughthisisamodestimpactonaverage,wefindsignificantheterogeneities;inH50particular,t

5、heeffectislargerwhenarepresentative'sconstituentsaremoreatriskortherepresentativefacesJ65greaterre-electionrisk.©2016ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:FreetradeagreementsTradeadjustmentassistancePoliticaleconomyRedistribution1.Introductionremainedinplace.”Foreachstatement,95%oftheresp

6、ondentseither3agreedorstronglyagreed,withtheremainderbeinguncertain.Accordingtocanonicalmodelsofinternationaltrade,freetradere-Whiletheclaimthatfreetradeiswelfare-enhancingonaveragemaysultsinnetwelfaregainsforallcountriesinvolved.Thistheoreticalpre-berelativelyincontrovertible,itisalsowell

7、recognizedthatfreetradedictionhasstrongempiricalbeliefaswell.Forexample,in2012thehasimportantdistributionalimplications.Indeed,DavidsonandInitiativeonGlobalMarketsattheUniversityofChicagoaskedroughlyMatusz(2006,p.123)state:“Twoofthemostgenerallyacceptedprop-50