资源描述：
《can google data improve the forcasting performance of tourist arrival》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、TourismManagement46(2015)454e464ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectTourismManagementjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/tourmanCanGoogledataimprovetheforecastingperformanceoftouristarrivals?Mixed-datasamplingapproacha,*b,1ProsperF.Bangwayo-Skeete,RyanW.SkeeteaDepartm
2、entofEconomics,UniversityoftheWestIndies,CaveHillCampus,P.OBox64,BridgetownBB11000,BarbadosbCaribbeanTourismOrganization,BaobabTower,Warrens,St.MichaelBB22026,BarbadoshighlightsUnstableworldtourismdemandreducedpredictivepowerofpasttouristarrivals.GoogleTrendsdatawasusedt
3、oimproveforecastaccuracy.Conductedforecastingcompetition.MIDASmodelsusingGoogledataoutperformedconventionaltimeseriesmodels.articleinfoabstractArticlehistory:ThispaperintroducesanewindicatorfortourismdemandforecastingconstructedfromGoogleTrends'Received13November2013sear
4、chquerytimeseriesdata.Theindicatorisbasedonacompositesearchfor“hotelsandflights”fromAccepted22July2014threemainsourcecountriestofivepopulartouristdestinationsintheCaribbean.WeuniquelytesttheAvailableonline24August2014forecastingperformanceoftheindicatorusingAutoregressiveMix
5、ed-DataSampling(AR-MIDAS)modelsrelativetotheSeasonalAutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(SARIMA)andautoregressive(AR)Keywords:approach.ThetwelvemonthforecastsrevealthatAR-MIDASoutperformedthealternativesinmostofTourismdemandtheout-of-sampleforecastingexperiments.Thissugge
6、ststhatGoogleTrendsinformationofferssignif-Forecastingicantbenefitstoforecasters,particularlyintourism.Hence,policymakersandbusinesspractitionersGoogledataMIDASespeciallyintheCaribbeancantakeadvantageoftheforecastingcapabilityofGooglesearchdataforMixed-datafrequencymodeling
7、theirplanningpurposes.Caribbean©2014ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.Touristarrivals1.Introductionautomobilepurchases;Vosen&Schmidt,2011onconsumption;McLaren&Shanbhogue,2009onhousing;Choi&Varian,2012;ThepasttwodecadeswitnessedanaccelerateduseofinternetMcLaren&Shanbhogue,2009;
8、Askitas&Zimmerman,2009;duetoitsabundantandtimelyinformation,resourcesandservices.D'Amuri,
