Early stopping

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1、BirthspacingandearlystoppingbehaviorinXiaoshanCounty,ZhejiangProvince,China1,2,321,2DarrylJHolman,HanHua,StevanHarrell1DepartmentofAnthropology2CenterforStudiesinDemographyandEcology3CenterforStatisticsandtheSocialSciencesUniversityofWashingtonSeattle,WA98195USAABSTRACTAlong-standi

2、ngcontroversyhasrecentlyreemergedoverpresenceorabsenceofdeliberatefertilitycontrolinlate-traditionalChina.OnesidemaintainsthatChinesefertilitypatternscanbeexplainedonlybydeliberatefertilitycontrol.TheothersideholdsthatfertilityintraditionalChinawaslimitedbyMalthusianpositivechecks,

3、andthatthereisneitherstatisticalnorculturalsupportforfertilitycontrol.Wecontributetothisdebateintheformofnewempiricaldataandanewstatisticalmethodforevaluatingbirthspacingandstoppingbehavior.Thedatacomefromgenealogicalbookscompiledandrevisedbetween1400and1930fromXiaoshanCounty,Zheji

4、angProvince.Thegenealogieswereusedtoreconstructthenumberandbirthspacingbetweensonswhosurvivetoadulthoodforwomenwhohadatleastoneson.Webeginwiththeculturally-groundedcontentionthatshouldcoupleslimittheirfertility,theywilldosoafterreachedadesirednumberofsons.Wehypothesizethatthedistri

5、butionofthesesurviving-sonbirthintervalsforagivenmaternalageandthefractionofcoupleswhostopreproducingatagivenageshouldsystematicallydifferbythenumberofsonsinthefamily.Thepresenceorabsenceoffertilitycontrolisinferredusingparametricsurvivalanalysisinwhichbotha“sterile”fractionandapar

6、ametricdistributionofbirthintervalsaremodeled.Theresultssuggestthatwithtwosons,manycoupleswillbegantospacetheirbirths,andthatwiththreesonsthereisevidencethatcouplesintentionallystoppingreproducing.Thefindingsareconsistentwithourrecentethnographicsurveyoffertilitybehaviorinthe1940sa

7、nd1950sinXiaoshanCounty.Weconcludethattherewasstoppingandspacingbehavioraccordingtothenumberofhealthysonsinafamilyinlate-traditionalChina.1henatureofthelate-traditionalChinesedemographicregime—thecomplexoffertility,nuptiality,andmortalitythatdeterminedtherateofpopulationgrowthonTth

8、eEastAsianMainlandbetweena