A Study of Market History and Valuation through Graham and Buffett and Others

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1、AStudyofMarketHistoryandValuationthroughGrahamandBuffettandOthersEditorialCommentsby:Aldridge56@aol.com,TheImportanceofStudyingHistoryManyoutstandinginvestorshavebeenfanaticalstudentsofhistorybecausehistoryteachesyoutoplaceeventsintoperspective,tounderstandthatindustriesboomandfade;cycle’srepeatandh

2、umanfollyisnever-ending.BillGrossofPimco(TheFixedIncomeMoneyManager)saidthatthehistorybooksinhisofficehavebeenabetterguidetomakingmoneyinthebondmarketsthananyfinancialanalysis.SethKlarman,valueinvestorextraordinaire,hasendowedahistorychair.WarrenBuffettsatforhoursintheColumbiaUniversityLibraryreadin

3、gnewspapers—includingtheads--fromthe1930stogainasenseoftheGreatDepression.JimRogers,theperipateticinvestor,speaksaboutthevalueofstudyinghistoryasaninvestorintheforewordtoFinancialReckoningDayFallout(2009)byWilliamBonnerandAddisonWiggin.JimRogers:“Theonlyotherway(besidesvisitingcountriesaroundtheworl

4、dyourself)toknowwhatisgoingonistostudyhistory.WhenIteachorspeakatuniversities,youngpeoplealwaysaskme:“Iwanttobesuccessfulandtravelaroundtheworld;whatshouldIstudy?”Ialwaystellthemthesamething:“Studyhistory.”Andtheyalwayslookatmeveryperplexedandsay,“Whatareyoutalkingabout….whatabouteconomics,whatabout

5、marketing?”“Ifyouwanttobesuccessful,“Ialwayssay,“You’vegottounderstandhistory.Youwillseehowtheworldhisalwayschanging.Youwillseehowalotofthethingsweseetodayhavehappenedbefore.Believeitornot,thestockmarketdidn’tbeginthedayyougraduatedfromschool.Thestockmarket’sbeenaroundforcenturies.Allmarketshave.The

6、sethingshavehappenedbefore.Andwillhappenagain.”AlanGreenspanwentonrecordbeforehelefthispostattheFederalReservesayinghehadneverseenabubblebefore.Iknowinhisadultlifetimetherehavebeenseveralbubbles.Therewasabubbleinthelate1960sintheU.S.stockmarket.Therewastheoilbubble(inthelate1970s).Thegoldbubble(inth

7、e1980s).The(stock)bubbleinKuwait.ThebubbleinJapan.ThebubbleinrealestateinTexas.Sowhatishetalkingabout?Hadhenotseenthosethings,hecouldhaveatleastreadsomehistories…allthesethingsandothershavebeenwritten