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1、Mr.BuffettontheStockMarketbyCarolLoomisNovember22,1999Themostcelebratedofinvestorssaysstockscan'tpossiblymeetthepublic'sexpectations.AsfortheInternet?Henoteshowfewpeoplegotrichfromtwoothertransformingindustries,autoandaviation.WarrenBuffett,chairmanofBerkshireHathaway,almostnevertalksp
2、ubliclyaboutthegenerallevelofstockprices--neitherinhisfamedannualreportnoratBerkshire'sthrongedannualmeetingsnorintherarespeecheshegives.Butinthepastfewmonths,onfouroccasions,Buffettdidstepuptothatsubject,layingouthisopinions,inwaysbothanalyticalandcreative,aboutthelong-termfutureforst
3、ocks.FORTUNE'sCarolLoomisheardthelastofthosetalks,giveninSeptembertoagroupofBuffett'sfriends(ofwhomsheisone),andalsowatchedavideotapeofthefirstspeech,giveninJulyatAllen&Co.'sSunValley,Idaho,bashforbusinessleaders.Fromthoseextemporaneoustalks(thefirstmadewiththeDowJonesindustrialaverage
4、at11,194),LoomisdistilledthefollowingaccountofwhatBuffettsaid.Buffettrevieweditandweighedinwithsomeclarifications.Investorsinstocksthesedaysareexpectingfartoomuch,andI'mgoingtoexplainwhy.Thatwillinevitablysetmetotalkingaboutthegeneralstockmarket,asubjectI'musuallyunwillingtodiscuss.But
5、Iwanttomakeonethingcleargoingin:ThoughIwillbetalkingaboutthelevelofthemarket,Iwillnotbepredictingitsnextmoves.AtBerkshirewefocusalmostexclusivelyonthevaluationsofindividualcompanies,lookingonlytoaverylimitedextentatthevaluationoftheoverallmarket.Eventhen,valuingthemarkethasnothingtodow
6、ithwhereit'sgoingtogonextweekornextmonthornextyear,alineofthoughtwenevergetinto.Thefactisthatmarketsbehaveinways,sometimesforaverylongstretch,thatarenotlinkedtovalue.Soonerorlater,though,valuecounts.SowhatIamgoingtobesaying--assumingit'scorrect--willhaveimplicationsforthelong-termresul
7、tstoberealizedbyAmericanstockholders.1Let'sstartbydefining"investing."Thedefinitionissimplebutoftenforgotten:Investingislayingoutmoneynowtogetmoremoneybackinthefuture--moremoneyinrealterms,aftertakinginflationintoaccount.Now,togetsomehistoricalperspective,let'slookbackatthe34yearsbef
