A Phased Approach to Orbital Public Access

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1、APHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSAPHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSMarkHempsellUniversityofBristol,UKAPHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSBADNEWS:THEINVESTMENTTRAP0510YEARS155AnnualRevenueArbitraryAnnualBalancewithoutinterestMoney0AnnualBalancewithinterestAnn

2、ualSpend-5ASSUMPTIONS-105Yearsbeforeoperations10%perannuminterest50%operationalprofit-15-20CumulativeBalance-25APHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSCERTIFICATIONTocarrythepublic“reasonable”levelsofriskneedtobedemonstrated.Whatis“reasonable”?Approaching1inmillionri

3、skofdeathOnlyachievedbytestingandoperationalexperience.=MorecostandmoretimeRealisticcertificationmakestheinvestmenttrapevenworse.Theinvestmentwouldneedtobereducedbytwoordersofmagnitudetobreakoutofthetrap.APHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSSUB-ORBITALTOURISMPlusP

4、oint:Vehicleanorderofmagnitudelowertoacquirethanorbital(stillhigherthanmanythink!).But:(ScaledComposites)OrderofmagnitudelowerticketpriceSpecialistinfrastructure–noothersub-orbitapplicationsThesub-orbitalbusinessisonitsownAPHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSORBIT

5、ALPUBLICACCESS(ReactionEnginesLtd).Orbitalpassengerflightsaremoremarketable–higherperceivedvalueButtheinfrastructureisorderofmagnitudemoreexpensiveAnorbitaltransportinfrastructurecanserviceothermarketsandtheycancovertheacquisitioncostsAPHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBL

6、ICACCESSACASESTUDYASkylonpersonnelmodule(ReactionEnginesLtd).APHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSPERSONNELMODULE-INITIALCONFIGURATIONHygiene&ECLSSDockingportKitchenCargospace(3tonnes)Pilotcabin21underfloortripleCTBbaysGroundentrydoor4Passengers(ejectorseatsup,sup

7、inedown)APHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESS15degreedockingportalignmentallowsrescuemissions(ReactionEnginesLtd).APHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSEARLYOPERATIONSISSSUPPORT8flightsayearwithhalfcrewrotationwitheachflight.Annuallydeliver32crewand24tonnesofsupplie

8、sAnnualbudgetofaround$300million($40million/flight)+OTHERMISSIONSAnother4flights?APHASEDAPPROACHTOORBITALPUBLICACCESSAfter3yearsofinitialoperations-over1000Sky