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1、Analysis:Chinaplasticsdemandwon'treviveenoughtomeltglut(Reuters)-China'sconsumptionofplasticcouldgrowbyupto7percentthisyearafterstallingin2011,butthereboundwillnotbeenoughtomeltaregionalsupplyglutthatwillcurbtheoutputofplasticmanufacturersandpressurethepe
2、trochemicalmarket.Asianplasticexporters,whorelyheavilyondemandfromtheworld'ssecond-biggesteconomy,facehavingtoscalebackproductionfurtherthisyear,inturncuttingdemandfornaphtha-thekeyoilproductusedtomakeplastic.PlasticdemandisakeygaugeofthehealthofChinesema
3、nufacturinggivenitsuseinalmosteverythingfromiPadstocarsandpackaging,butweaktraditionalexportmarketsandBejing'sstepstocooleconomicgrowtharestillhittingsales.AReuterssurveyoffiveconsultantsandaleadingindustrybodyseesChina'sconsumptionofplasticbyAsia'stopimp
4、ortergrowingaround5-7percent,uponlastyear'sflatgrowthbutwelldownonthedouble-digitgrowthin2009-2010."2012couldstillbeaproblematicyear.Youareunlikelytoseegrowthgoingbacktolevelsseenin2009,"saidMalaysia-basedMazlanRazakofconsultancyNexantAsiaInc,whoprojectst
5、hatdemandinChinacouldgrowatleast5percent.HigheroilpriceswithBrentcrudeaveraging$118.21abarrelthisyear,up6.6percentfrom2011's$110.91,arealsosqueezingmargins,whichcouldpushplasticmakerstocutruns,hittingdemandfortherawmaterialethylenemadefromnaphtha."Alotofp
6、eoplearegoingfromhand-to-mouthandarekeepinginventorieslow.If(rawmaterial)costsgettoohigh,peoplewouldstopbuying,"Razaksaid.Naphthamargins,thepremiumsfromrefiningBrentcrude,hita5-1/2monthlowat$76.13ametricton(1.1023tons)onMay16.AlthoughlessthanhalfoftheFebr
7、uary29highof$182.63,marginsremainwellabovethenearminus$190inlate2008whenthecrisishit.HOMEDEMANDTOIMPROVE;LOWERIMPORTSNEEDEDInAsia,SouthKoreahasovertakenJapanastheleadingmanufacturerofethylene.KeyexportersofpetrochemicalstoChinaincludeTaiwan'sFormosaPetroc
8、hemicalCorp(6505.TW),Asia'stopnaphthaimporter,Japan'sMitsubishiChemicalMSCHML.ULandSouthKoreanfirmsincludingYNCC,LGChemandHonamPetrochemical.JapaneseexportshavebeenlosingouttocompetitorsinSouthKoreaandTaiwanduemainl
