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1、PolicyResearchInstitute,MinistryofFinance,Japan,PublicPolicyReview,Vol.6,No.3,March2010431∗HousingBubblesinJapanandtheUnitedStatesChihiroShimizuAssociateProfessor,ReitakuUniversityTsutomuWatanabeProfessor,HitotsubashiUniversityAbstractJapanandtheUnitedStateshaveexperie
2、ncedthehousingbubblesandsubsequentcollapsesofthebubblesinsuccession.Inthispaper,thesetwobubblesarecomparedandthefollowingfindingsareobtained.Firstly,uponapplyingtwentyyearsofpastdatafromJapantothe“repeat-salesmethod”andthe“hedonicpricingmethod”,whicharerepresentativeme
3、thodsforcalculatinghouseprices,itwasfoundthatthetimingatwhichpricesbottomedoutafterthecollapsesofthebubblesdiffereddependingonthetwomethods.Thetimingforbottomingoutasestimatedbytherepeat-salesmethoddelayedwhencomparedtotheestimateusingthehedonicpricingmethod,by13months
4、forcondominiumsandbythreemonthsforsingle-familyhomes.Thisdelayiscausedbythedepreciationeffectofbuildingnotbeingprocessedappropriatelybytherepeat-salesmethod.IntheUnitedStates,theS&P/Case-ShillerHomePriceIndicesarerepresentativehousepricesindices,whichusetherepeat-sales
5、method.Therefore,itispossiblethatthetimingforbottomingoutisestimatedtobedelayed.AsthereareincreasinginterestsinthetimingforbottomingoutoftheUShousingmarket,thereisariskthattheexistenceofsuchalagincognitioncausestheincreaseofuncertaintyandthedelayineconomicrecovery.Seco
6、ndly,whenlookingattherelationshipbetweenthedemandforhousesandhousepricesbasedonthetime-seriesdata,thereisapositivecorrelationbetweenthetwoelements.However,uponconductingananalysisusingthepaneldata,whichisbasedondatainunitsofprefecturesorstates,thereisnosignificantrelat
7、ionshipbetweenthedemandforhousesandhousepricesinbothJapanandtheUnitedStates.Inthissense,itishardtoexplainwhetherthereisabubbleandthesizeofthebubbleaccordingto∗ThispaperistoreporttheInternationalConferenceontheU.S.EconomyassponsoredbytheMinistryofFinancePolicyResearchIn
8、stitute.Inpreparingthispaper,wereceivedvaluablecommentsfromMr.KiyohikoNishimura,Mr.YasuhiroNakagami,Mr.TomooInoueandM
